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Global Markets Analysis – 27 March 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


27.03.2017 周一 美盘豆油上周五意外重挫 失地范围扩大 马盘棕榈油建议平多翻空

由于美国方面对南美大豆产量增加的忧虑以及美国本土大豆种植面积增加的担忧,令空头主力动作激进。美盘豆油5月合约,在上周四带上影线的阴K线收盘后,上周五晚间短线走势不但没收复周四的失地—–反而期价继续重挫,终盘以长阴K线下跌收盘—–连续2根阴K线,就把7天的小幅上涨阵地“尽丢失”,美豆油短线技术走坏。

大陆内盘商品期价市场今日最新消息:3月25日经过第五次市场测试,大连交易所的豆粕期权交易准备实施(4月1日开始上市)。当前国内主流大宗商品各个品种空头气氛浓厚( 贵金属 黄金 白银除外),其余品种均不同程度出现下跌。对油脂类商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约来说:豆油品种基本上就未反弹过,而棕榈油短暂小幅反弹后,受豆油下跌走势拖累也呈“无功而返”,今天周一盘中的低开低走继续下挫,空头主力开始掌控盘面走势。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,上周四冲高挑战前高点,上周五期价继续考验前高,但终盘以中阴K线下跌收盘(未站到3.6日高点之上),马来西亚市场对棕榈油出口数据的担忧情绪再次弥漫市场——考虑到美盘豆油内盘油脂商品的短线走坏,今天周一盘中恐受外围周边市场的拖累——-建议今日早盘开盘后(要低开),多单平仓出局,且反手空单进场。

小结:油脂商品短线走势多空转换频率较快—–盘面上已经连续2次出现快速的急挫现象,总是不能让我们有充足的时间来完美操作—-“高位平多,然后反手空单高点进场布局” 这一操盘计划 。仓促之中,短线交易难度增大(总不能形成一种完整的波段,波峰,波谷操作)我们也只好追随市场运行轨迹变化及时调整操作计划(哎,不利的被动型)。今日具体操作上:内盘豆油未产生明显的波段反弹,前期多单持有,但反手空单进场锁单锁定亏损空间。 而内盘马盘棕榈油多单止损或 止盈平仓了结操作,然后今天早盘第一时间反手空单进场,后市短线技术瞬间的走坏,我们操作思维开始转空看待。后市期价仍有一定的下挫空间。

[SUMMARY]
• Short-term oscillation of edible oils between bullish and bearish accelerates, with two rounds of rapid decline.
• It is now difficult to formulate a strategy of “square-off long position at high price, turn short at low price”.
• We shall strategize according to changes in the market.

[ACTION]
• Until China soybean oil shows clear sign of a reversal, traders may retain long position.
• Traders who turn short may prepare for a cut-loss.
• China and Malaysia palm oil long position holders may cut loss and close-out position.
• We are switching our outlook from long to short, with reasonable room for prices to fall further.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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