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Global Markets Analysis – 27 May 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


26.05.2016 周四 全球油脂类商品短线出现变盘的走强信号苗头

美盘豆油7月合约,昨日晚间曾一度红盘错列上行,但尾盘又回落下来,未形成明显的错列反弹上行走势,但短线的止跌迹象已经较为明显。今天亚洲电子盘又红盘表现,美豆油仍有上冲动能。我们继续关注美盘豆油的动向。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,期价率先出现走强,盘中的上涨反弹态势更为明显。在昨日周四盘中高开高走中阳上涨之后,今天周五盘中,期价再度高开,但在美盘尚未反弹明显前,今天内盘油脂形成阴K线表现,但下影线的出现,仍表明后市存在走强的可能,建议逢低多单跟进。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,昨日走势已经形成2根错列的阳K线上涨走势,期价站于2530一线的上方,今天周五盘中虽然未再出现明显的上涨(在等待美盘的支持),马棕榈油7月日K线图表更为明显,期价再度站上升趋势线之上。因此我们建议短多观点对待,新进场多单止损位就设置在2530下方X点位置。

小结:油脂类商品当前短线多空转换较快,不排除向下挖了一个空头陷阱来迷惑投资人,我们不被该动作迷惑。在期货市场上-没有谁是能100%完全把握住市场行情方向,特别是短线的细节节奏,只能顺着市场运行节奏来把握期价的运行轨迹。我们在运作短线节奏上已经远远超出市场各类分析人士-均会有提前的警示以及快速的反手报告建议。从理论上讲,在期货市场具体操作上-其本质也不是要求所做每笔单子都要100%正确,只是要求改错-去掉错的单子留下与市场方向一致的单子-这就已经算是胜利了。本着这一理念以及在前面报告中所提到的暂时不建议做长线大周期的单子(全球经济的不可预测性太强以及中国经济转型可判断性太弱),我们仍以短线交易为主,以市场期价的价格运行轨迹为主要操作模式。不怕错,只怕错了不改(不知道那里错了),从正确的单子里的盈利部分去弥补,止损的错误单子中的亏损金额-这以及接近完美的期货操作理念了。个人观点认为操作建议:多单逢低进场,后市以短多观点对待。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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