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Global Markets Analysis – 27 October 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


27.10.2017周五美盘豆油多头主力仍在抵抗中

美国农业部昨日晚间发布周度销售报告:报告显示2017/2018年度截止到本周美国对华大豆出口销售总量比上年同期减少16.9%,上周报告是减少17.2%。美黄豆连昨日完全期价小幅下跌。美盘豆油12月合约期价却红盘小涨,今天亚洲电子盘仍红盘表现——表明在美豆油上多头主力仍试图上攻原趋势线位置的技术阻挡,多头主力仍未完全放弃,当前期价呈现出6天来的横盘波动状态(并未创新高),我们逢高出局后,不建议继续追多操作。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,内盘豆粕期价已经小幅下挫好几天了,内盘豆油棕榈油期价仍小幅横盘震荡,由于前期多头发力反弹上扬走势的高度远低于美盘,因此上内盘维持横盘波动也是可以理解。

马盘棕榈油基准1月,在美盘豆油纽约原油未完全走坏情况下,马盘棕榈期价仍惯性上冲,今天周五盘面上仍红盘跳空表现,当前期价临近9月15日中旬时候前高阻拦位置,我们不认为当前期价能突破该高点(存在强弩之末嫌疑),逢高反手短空试盘仓单继续持有。

小结:美盘豆油反抽到关键阻拦位置后,期价仍在反复测试验证中,由于多头主力的不放弃,当前期价仍在技术阻拦范围内波动震荡,但我们思维上已经不再看高多少,在收获季节结束的尾声阶段仍然认为油脂类商品期价还有最后一次下探可能—–届时我们再考虑低点位置逢低多单进场的操作。当前技术位我们还是延续昨日反手激进型交易者空单短线试盘操作。继续关注美盘豆油在阻力位的后续表现。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oils is still re-testing the resistance which is the previous high that resisted the market to move upward.
• Edible oils might be having a last retracement before end of the harvest session.
• Traders may pay close attention to the resistance on the US soybean oil.

[ACTION]
• Traders may initiate long position when the prices are low.
• Aggressive traders who are holding short positions from yesterday may retain those but prepare to close positions if the price go higher.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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