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Global Markets Analysis – 27 September 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


27.09.2016 周二 美盘大豆和美盘豆油期价走软拖累了内盘与马盘油脂商品短线走势

美盘油脂商品在过去近20年走势上,给我们最直接的感受就是-多空主力态度明确,走势严谨而清晰。可从最近这段时间观察-美黄豆连走势模糊,几乎是横盘震荡模式,特别是最近时间段,美黄豆连在940-1000区间内震荡徘徊波动,而美豆油12月走势上也呈现出犹犹豫豫不干脆样子,特别是近期在短线走势不连贯与不延续-表现出更多的是盘中瞬间多空转换速度快,形不成有效的持续性,这种走势对投资人心理上带来不利的影响。美豆油近几日在走势上存在拖累内盘与马盘油脂商品的嫌疑。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,昨日周一盘中期价中阳上涨,并且创出近期新高点,可由于晚间美盘豆油的不支持,于是总不能畅快淋漓的延续下来,今天周二盘中的中阴低开低走,令昨日的发力上扬又毁于一旦。考虑到中国10月1日国庆节的临近,又要面临一个长假期(10月1日-10月9日停盘直到10月10日周一才开盘),也就是说大陆内盘本周还只要3个交易日时间,由于未来不确定因素较复杂,未来三个交易日期价若不能再继续走高,则短线交易者可考虑逢高减仓的时候到了。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,昨天周一盘中期价上涨,其中11月期价见新高2796,这与2014年3月11日的2798令吉特高点仅仅只有2个点的误差,基本上达到我们预测的目标位。在今天周二盘中,期价小幅滑落,盘中持仓量观察-价跌仓减,这是由部分多头逢高减仓操作而造成的盘口语言,对此动作的发生,我们要保持一定的心理警惕,特别是散户短线多单交易者来说,我们不能把到手的利润再丢还给市场。

小结:由于美盘豆油的短线走软,不能一举突破8月23日的前高阻挡,这给内盘 与马盘油脂商品带来心理负面影响(内盘油脂商品已经在高位跃跃欲试很久了而马盘棕榈也早创出近2年多的高点位置),考虑到内盘油脂商品又要临近公共假期(本周只剩下28、29、30三天的交易日),我们在保持短线多头观点不变前提下-也要在操作上提前做个思想准备,若未来3天内期价不能继续拔高,我们建议多单适量逢高减持-特别是短线敏感型激进交易者,可考虑多单平仓离场,以规避市场因长假期带来的系统性风险损失,不与市场有赌博心理争斗。

[SUMMARY]
• Short-term weakening and inability to break August 23rd high by US soybean oil hurts sentiment on Malaysia’s edible oil products.
• Due to public holidays in China on 28th, 29th and 30th, we maintain our short-term long position outlook, provided prices continue to climb in the next three trading days in Malaysia.

[OPINION]
• Traders may reduce long positions by a reasonable amount, should prices fail to edge up in the next three trading days.
• Aggressive short-term traders may consider liquidating their long positions to avoid the adverse impact of systemic risk that may arise due to the long holidays.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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