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Global Markets Analysis – 27 September 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


27.09.2017周三美盘豆油昨日晚间再度长阴下跌

美盘豆油12月合约,在期价下破60天均线之后,昨日周二晚间期价再度长阴K线下跌,盘中跌幅较大。技术观察,期价下挫加速迹象明显(不破不立前兆),美豆油短线整理开始变得较为充分起来,在快速杀跌之后,我们不再过多往下看太大空间,时刻关注下方止跌企稳信号的出现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油 1801主力合约,内盘豆油短线角度的下挫整理仍延续中,今天周三盘面期价再度出现新低。内盘棕榈油昨日盘面较强,期价追随马盘棕榈油小阳K线走高,盘面上期价出现了“反复”现在,这也在我们意料之中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月(或11月,在11月上的仓单我们只有最后三天交易时间,内盘长假期回来将不再谈及11月),马盘棕榈昨日周二盘面中阳上涨,在盘面上形成连续几日阴K线急挫之后的中阳K线报复性上涨修复动作,该假动作早在我们意料之中。今天周三早盘,期价再度低开,今日盘面期价仍有走低的机会。

小结:美盘豆油短线角度的下挫整理接近尾声后期,我们思想开始变得谨慎起来。内盘马盘油脂商品昨日周二盘面发生我们前面预料的期价“反复”现象,在回落整理过程中改变了一下下挫的节奏,但这不会更改下挫的态势。具体操作上:我们继续延续本周建议的操作理念——-逢低空单兑现离场!临近内盘长假期最后3个交易日,为规避8天长假期间不确定因素发生,我们继续保持多年来不变的思维模式—–长假期内尽量不持仓过节。因此今天继续建议散户朋友关注盘中逢低点空单分批量平仓离场的时机把握。

[SUMMARY]
• Downward correction of US soybean oil is nearly to end.
• China and Malaysia edible oils rebounded yesterday, but it might not change the downward direction of the markets.
• China is having last three trading days before they have a long break.

[ACTION]
• In China and Malaysia market, traders who are holding short positions may close-out all positions when the prices are low.
• Retail traders are not recommended to hold positions over a long holidays in China market.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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