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Global Markets Analysis – 28 April 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


28.04.2015 油脂类商品短线下跌

美盘原油短线反弹上行后,出现动能衰竭止步不前现象,58.00一线始终不能向上突破,短线出现均线上穿之后的回落确认走势。

美盘豆油7月合约,期价连续多日在60天均线位置横盘震荡,始终未能远离,在这个关键技术位置始终这种走势,对后市的反弹预期产生不利影响,若长此下去,不排除又要出现考验下方60天均线的下挫要求。需谨慎对待。

中国大陆金融市场,特别是股票市场近期连续强力反弹上涨,其中上证指数已经从2013年6月28日当周的最低点 1849.65点(先横盘后上涨)最近短短这几个月已经上涨到今天的4572.39点,大陆证券市场鸡犬升天,我们早期就曾建议的在上证指数2000点附近埋伏多单,现在回头看来确实是个最佳的操作方案(单门有过一篇对证券市场的报告)。 对期货市场来说,证券市场的翻倍上涨却对内盘期货市场各类商品未能起到明显的拉动作用。这点确实令人遗憾。近期只有金属铜、锌、白糖、橡胶、PTA等几个品种出现过小幅上涨。对于我们所更为关心的油脂商品豆油与棕榈油的影响甚微。昨日个人建议内盘豆油 棕榈油1509合约前期短线接盘多单逢高减仓,今天继续执行该短线操作手法。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月合约,前期的市场表现在油脂类商品中一直为最弱品种,上周五的高开低走,以及昨天周一盘中的低开低走延续走势,已经令短线的走势出现走坏迹象,昨天我们就建议多单减持或反手空单锁单。今天盘面继续走软,期价再次面临前低考验。

小结:油脂类商品又出现短线层面的走软迹象,特别是马盘棕榈油。大角度下的低位震荡筑大底观点保持不变。短线角度建议可暂时规避一下风险,内盘多单减持,马盘则多单减仓或反手锁单或短空对待。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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