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Global Markets Analysis – 28 August 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


8.28 周四 油脂商品走势略有分化

美盘豆油12月昨日白天亚洲电子盘呈阳K线小幅上涨,‘三个红小兵K线’右侧错列出现雏形,可惜的是周三晚间美盘出现下跌再次以小阴K线收盘,未能延续白天的走强,仅属于暂时止跌后的小幅度整理状态。

大陆内盘油脂商品昨日出现反弹发力迹象,尤其是豆油1501合约,在前几日的横盘成交密集区的上沿被突破后,昨日盘面见到多头久违的反攻迹象,终盘以小阳收盘。棕榈油1501合约盘中期价也曾出现反弹发力,但力度明显弱于豆油,终盘以带上下影线阳K线收盘。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,早盘受外围上涨影响小幅高开,但维持不久就遭到空头主力的猛烈打压,全天表现疲软逐步走低,最后终盘以中阴K线下跌收盘,表明马盘市场仍被空头氛围包围积重难返。

美元指数前期一直保持震荡上行态势,昨日见高点82.73后冲高回落,短线出现向下的整理迹象。国际原油在前期连续下跌后,8日横盘整理,短线呈小平台震荡走势。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线走势出现细微上分化,其中内盘豆油表现最强,出现反弹迹象,但靠其一个品种的力量尚不能带动全部品种。马盘毛棕榈油表现最弱,盘面显示仍延续惯性下探走势。美盘豆油、内盘棕榈油和美盘原油三者昨日表现为中性,仅出现稍微止跌,三者未见到明显的短线方向性指引。从技术层面来说,油脂类商品经过前期长时间的下跌之后,确实存在技术反弹要求,但预期中的反弹动作仍被利空氛围所包围,致使反弹动作被忽视而钝化。个人看法是昨日激进者接盘豆油多单继续持有,多单止损位设置于本周一(8月25日)下方低点处。未进场稳健操作者观望,后市密切关注美盘豆油的后期走势(靠内盘豆油单一品种力量略显单薄)。8月25日的低点是我们关注当前短线走势多空的风向标。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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