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Global Markets Analysis – 28 July 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


28.07.2017周五美盘豆油昨日晚间上攻仍未成功

国际原油短线反弹上行延续中,纽约原油期价已经临近49.00一线。美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周四晚间一度长阳上涨见新高34.69.。尾盘再度回落,终盘以带上影线的34.28收盘(仍然未站稳7月11月高点的34.44上方)。瞬间的毛刺突破在我们实际操作中是不成立的(仅代表有上攻欲望 但无功而返)。今天周五亚洲电子盘期价又低开表现,在34.10一线波动震荡,不能上破继续以短空思维对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,昨日周四红盘中阳上涨表现,今天周五早盘期价高开低走阴K线表现,未破前高之前继续以短空操作思维对待或者横盘震荡无序状态对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,昨日周四长阳上涨,在前几日突破前高之后继续发力上攻,如果我们报告中只是单独研判马盘棕榈短线走势—–马棕榈油确实走了一小波“独立”的小幅反弹行情,它的本波走势基本上也符合我们原先的心理预期。但考虑到美盘豆油的犹豫不决与内盘的不死不活表现,我们不能根据马盘棕榈油的独立走势而研判内盘美盘,特别是美盘豆油12合约,才是我们整体油脂商品真正的“总风向标”。

小结:油脂类商品短线波动较为频繁,受本周一突然的下跌假动作影响,瞬间打乱了我们本周的操作计划。对于内盘美盘油脂商品来说,当前高点期价受阻时候,我们依旧建议短空思维对待。而对于马盘棕榈油来说,我们这里重点说说马盘棕榈——由于马棕榈的短线独立强势,造成短线空单被套现象,今日短线分时图出现期价回落走势(正如我们昨天所料,期价短线冲高回落整理,并且回落刚刚开始,尚未完全结束),稳健者可适当空单少量减仓(心理承受压力弱的交易者),而部分激进型交易者可空单再多坚持到下周初,我个人对美盘豆油仍存在反弹受阻观点,让我们关注一下下周初全球油脂商品的整体表现。

[SUMMARY]
• The steep decline on Monday in an already volatile short-term trend had disrupted our strategy this week.
• We hold a short-term short outlook on China and US edible oils, which are facing resistance at the moment.
• The fall of Malaysia palm oil today is may be the start of a downward correction.

[ACTION]
• Defensive traders may reduce short positions.
• Aggressive traders may carry short positions to next week.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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