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Global Markets Analysis – 28 June 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


28.06.2017 周三美元指数大幅下挫全球大宗商品期价压力减轻

昨日周二晚间,美元指数长阴下跌,而非美货币则一飞冲天,特别是外汇市场欧元长阳飙涨创近期新高(1.1350).而大宗商品也有不俗表现——美原油短线出现从低位开始反弹上行苗头。昨日周二晚间美盘豆油12月合约中阳上涨,下方回落空间被封杀,若再出现一根阳K线错列上涨—–则反复上行走势再度拉开,当前油脂类商品在基本面匮乏情况下呈低位震荡态势。

中国大连期货交易所油脂类商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,内盘豆油追随美盘豆油走势略显蠢蠢欲动,今天周三盘面小阳K线表现。内盘棕榈油十字星K线波动震荡,内盘油脂商品短线下跌空间也开始收窄。

马来西亚26日27日本周一周二庆祝穆斯林开斋节停盘休市2天,今天周三开盘交易,马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,早盘小幅高开红盘表现,虽说上涨幅度不大,但下方回落空间也收窄,同样不排除“强力反身向上走势”的可能,继续关注美盘豆油的后续表现。

小结:美元下跌,以美元计价的大宗商品压力开始减轻,油脂类商品也不同程度出现走强欲望,但由于今天期价上涨幅度不够(也在于美盘豆油仅仅只出现了一根阳K线 ),尚不能明确的确认下挫整理已经完全结束(但内心又不能排除后市反身走强的可能性),鉴于当前纠结走势我们建议分2步操作:1.激进型散户交易者可少量多单逢低进场试盘(仓单不必太大),2.稳健型交易者可暂时多观望一天,观察美盘豆油是否出现错列的第二根阳K线,稳定信号出现后再决定进场。我们操作理念的中心思想是—–当前短线走势有突然强势反身上涨的可能 ,也有继续下挫整理的因素。但最终整理结束后,最终走势还会反弹上行,这也是我们建议可少量多单试盘建议的存在的基础(本波短线下挫是“底背离”下挫整理时间不会太久)。

[SUMMARY]
• As US dollar slips, the pressure on USD-denominated edible oils eases.
• Edible oils appear to show sign of an uptrend that is not strong enough to indicate whether or not the downward correction has ended.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders may enter into long position in small number.
• Passive traders may stay on the sidelines for the day.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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