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Global Markets Analysis – 28 March 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


28.03.2017 周二 油脂类商品十字星表现 盘中呈抵抗性回落走势

美盘豆油5月合约,在连续的2根长阴K线之后,昨日周一晚间又以下挫的十字星收盘,从短线角度来说,当前期价勉强在前低(3.14日低点)附近暂时受到支撑,但后市不排除下破该低点的可能。从更长周期观察—–周K线图表上,当前美盘豆油仍处于自2016年12月7日开始的中线回落过程中,盘中的任何短线反弹很快的被几根日K线就轻松吞没的情况来看—只能说明美豆油反弹上行之后的本波中期回落整理行情的底部仍未完全结束,美豆油日K线图表上的任何短线反弹走势均受制于周K线图表上的 中线下挫整理态势,在周K线图未真正完全调整结束前,美豆油短线仍需要继续下挫寻支撑。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,今天周二盘面上以十字星走势表现,在昨日阴K线杀跌之后,今天盘中多空力量暂时旗鼓相当,后市短线仍需要后续的回落整理。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,昨日周一低开低走,今天周二高开高走,短线期价运行不连贯,盘中多空搏杀较为激烈,这是多空主力对后市看法分歧较大的一种盘面表现,也就是说昨日空头主动出击打压期价,而今日多头又主动护盘,未来后市的短线走势恐还延续这种下探式,抵抗型的下挫整理态势(还需要延续一周左右)

小结;美盘豆油前几日的短线反弹被突然的2根阴K线给吞没,短线反弹走势昙花一现 最终却又无功而返—–表明美豆油本波的中期下挫整理走势仍未完结(理论上讲中线下跌整理之后 总会有一波超跌后的反弹行情,但截至到现在仍未运行出现,日K线上的反弹拐点与中线角度整理结束的拐点未完全重叠是造成日K线反弹失败的主要原因)。对当前油脂类商品,我们只好再以短空思维看待,从今天盘中的多头主力抵抗动作来看,未来后期短线的这种抵抗性下挫“探底”过程仍需要一小段时间。具体操作上:内盘豆油多空锁单继续持有,内盘马盘反手空单继续持有—–由于对后市中线角度下挫整理结束后,我们还保持反弹观点的预期,因此上本波短线的下挫探底走势,我们需要在思维上稍微谨慎些在短线操作上也要稍微灵活些,而不是那种中线完全看空的大观点(特别是整理到下挫尾声阶段的后期)我们的潜在心理思维主要还是放到寻找 “下探底”的拐点上来, 因此在未来盘中的任何急挫过程中的急跌,所持空单可遇 盘中阴K线下跌逢低离场。整体一句话来表达我们的意思—–那就是在下挫式下跌过程中寻找我们期待中的多单理想低点的拐点技术位置。未来几天我们会一直保持这种观点。

[SUMMARY]
• Medium-term downward correction of US soybean oil is still in progress.
• We hold a short-term short outlook.
• Judging from the strength of long interest today, it may take a while for the market to touch the bottom in the short-term.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain spread position on China soybean oil.
• Traders may retain short position on China and Malaysia edible oils.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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