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Global Markets Analysis – 28 May 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


28.05.2015周四 关注全球农产品;关注厄尔尼诺现象

据有关部门公布:今年夏季印度高温横行,部分地区气温达到48摄氏度,已经导致1100多人死亡。据印度媒体以及华尔街见闻报道, 一场有可能的是记录以来的厄尔尼诺现象正在形成。

厄尔尼诺现象是指太平洋赤道海域的海水大面积升温现象。据新华社报道,美国夏威夷大学的阿克塞尔.蒂默曼认为这次可能是一次“超级厄尔尼诺”现象,目前美国的气候模型分析显示,这次厄尔尼诺强度可能堪比1997至1998年那轮厄尔尼诺。

据分析若本轮厄尔尼诺真的形成,将会出现以下现象并且需要引起我们的警惕:1.亚洲和东非天气将异常炎热,印度已经提前被高温笼罩,印度有一半农田将缺乏灌溉。在中国,厄尔尼诺会使雨带南移,导致南涝北旱,北方地区有可能出现极度高温。2.在美洲,气候会更加潮湿,美国南部和南美洲的降雨将猛增。目前美国南部的德克萨斯州和俄克拉荷马州连日遭遇罕见的暴风雨袭击,已经造成9人死亡,后期可能形成“水乡泽国”。3.厄尔尼诺现象可能导致巧克力价格飙升,糖与可可的减产会更促使巧克力涨价。4.咖啡、大米、大豆成本升高。据《纽约时报》报道,咖啡成本会增加107%,大豆成本会增加36.8%而大米产量会减少13.7%。5.棕榈油产量将会下降。据美国农业部数据显示,在1997至1998年棕榈油产量,印尼下降了7.1%,马来西亚下降了5.5%,印尼与马来西亚这两个国家占全球棕榈油总供给的86%。6.黄金价格将会下跌,厄尔尼诺现象将导致购买量下降,甚至不排除消费者出售手中的黄金,同时有色金属、橡胶与其他农产品也将会受到不同程度的影响。

当前,对油脂类商品来说,美盘豆油7月依旧短线震荡整理,美盘大豆低位出现止跌企稳初步迹象。大陆内盘豆油与棕榈油短线反弹上行,特别是棕榈油1509主力合约已经开始挑战5月6日的前高。马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,近几日期价逐步抬高,技术上同样存在挑战5月12日前高要求。

小结:油脂类商品短线反弹上行,期价有不同程度的重心上移,个人继续以短多观点看待当前油脂商品。至于之前提到的厄尔尼诺现象要在思维上提前保持警惕(即便当前还未真正大面积发生)。个人观点认为中长线低位接盘多单继续乐观持有,短线激进型追随盘面新进场的多单谨慎持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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