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Global Markets Analysis – 28 November 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


28.11.2014 OPEC维持产量不变;国际原油应声而落

昨日11月27日周四,在维也纳召开的OPEC会议历时5个小时,终于传来消息—保持石油生产目标3000万桶/日不变,消息一出国际原油出现暴跌,布伦特原油与美盘原油双双重挫,其中美原油昨日下跌6.3 %百分点。

在国际原油暴跌的背后确实存在巨大的阴谋。本周一莫斯科经济论坛上俄罗斯财长明确表示,由于欧美制裁,俄罗斯每年仅损失400亿美元,而这次原油的30%下跌,俄罗斯的损失达到900亿至1000亿美元左右。俄罗斯当前国际储备为4210亿美元(2014年11月7日最新数据),笔者算了一下,早在2013年10月31日俄罗斯的国际储备为5240亿美元,也就是说在短短一年当中俄罗斯已经损失了1030亿美元的外汇储备。在OPEC原油输出国12个国家中,沙特阿拉伯处于领导地位,他百般阻挠本次减产协议。其实明眼人早就知道,早些年俄罗斯因支持叙利亚总统阿萨德与沙特阿拉伯发生过冲突,当前因乌克兰问题西方国家正在对俄罗斯进行制裁,这已经使得俄罗斯经济遭受重创,举步艰难离经济衰退边缘一步之遥。12个输出国成员中,个别石油输出国成员国是赞同减产协议的,当前每天供应富余200万桶每天,可在别的国家不减产,自己国家单独减产的经济损失他也承受不住。

昨日美国感恩节假期,美盘大豆与豆油停盘。考虑到国际原油的暴跌,美豆油被拖累已经不可避免,箱体上沿存在阻挡可能。

今天周五早盘,大陆内盘豆油与棕榈油1505合约双双跳空低开,盘中日内单边下挫。马盘毛棕榈油基准1月也从60天线上一跃而下,前期的抵抗整理宣告失败。 内盘与马盘油脂商品脱离前期横盘小区间,短线出现技术走坏迹象,后市恐将延续疲软走势。

小结:国际原油市场昨日出现暴跌,全球动荡加剧。油脂类商品受拖累严重,短线上存在下行压力,局势不稳阶段稳健者观望。内盘无仓单者观望。马盘前期多单部分持有者适量空单锁仓规避风险。个人观点认为日内短线激进操作者可适量空单进场日内进出。密切关注美盘开盘后的走势情况。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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