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Global Markets Analysis – 28 October 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


28.10.2016 周五 美盘豆油3连阴下挫整理

美黄豆连震荡上行走势延续中,美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周四晚间中阴下跌收盘-昨日的下跌已经令美豆油连续第3个交易日期价下挫,我们前几日的担忧逐渐变为现实,若美盘豆油今日晚间期价不能收复昨天的阴K线失地,恐后市短线将出现一定程度的期价回落整理走势。这是我们本周来一直关注防备的焦点地方。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,昨日内盘油脂商品高开低走中阴下跌,减仓下行-表明有部分短线多头平仓出局。今天周五早盘低开高走小阳表现,但若今天的期价不能收复昨天失地,后市短线期价也存在回落下方均线的可能,我们继续高度关注短线走势节奏。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,昨日小阴K线,今日小阳K线-马盘棕榈出现小幅的横盘整理状态,这也是个警惕信号,不要忘记此刻的横盘整理位置-是在反弹到一定高度之后的“横盘”,若后市内盘与美盘油脂商品一旦出现个风吹草动信号,底下低位多单势必会止盈出局,我们的操作建议就是:一定要抢在主力减仓多单之前,不能在其之后,以防利润降低(宁可错杀;不可滞后)。

小结:本周以来几个交易日,我们在保持短线看多观点不变前提下,已经连续多天提醒散户朋友逢高减持多单,此刻,美盘豆油略微出现了些许回落均线的整理苗头,虽然内盘与马盘尚未表现明显,但我们仍需要时刻保持警惕,在有些时候-敏感一定会比愚钝要可靠的多。观点认为具体操作上:短周期交易者已经连续多日建议多单逢高减仓,相信目前手中剩余多单已经不多,今天建议剩余多单全部平仓出局。中长线交易者所持多单逢高减仓一半持有,谨防后市短线回落整理带来的没必要伤害。

[SUMMARY]
• Over the past week of trading, we have maintained our short-term long position outlook and recommended that retail traders reduce their long positions when prices were high.
• At this point, US soybean oil is beginning to show signs of downward correction which we should be cautious of, despite not seeing the same happening in China and Malaysia markets.

[ACTION]
• Short-term traders, who have gradually reduced long positions as recommended, may close-out all remaining long positions.
• Medium and long-term traders may close-out a portion of their long positions at high prices, to mitigate the adverse impact of the short-term downward correction.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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