Share

Tweet this

Global Markets Analysis – 28 September 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


9.28 周日 本周回顾(22.09.2014 – 26.09.2014)下周展望

截止到9月26日(周五),在过去一周内,美盘油脂商品依然受美大豆下跌影响下弱势格局中运行,美豆油12月周五阴K线下跌,期价收盘于32.09. 距离9月10日前低的31.52仅仅一步之遥,从美盘豆油中长期层面来说,美豆油下降趋势下的下探寻底过程仍在延续中,期价在下挫过程中来吸收消化今年美大豆创纪录的增产利空消息的负面影响。短线上观察,虽近期下跌幅度有所收敛,但该品种仍在疲软态势下运行,寻底过程未明显完结。

马来西亚棕榈油方面情况就比美盘豆油乐观了许多,受9月份出口坚挺,产量放缓,令吉特汇率疲软等三方面短线利多影响,马盘毛棕榈油指标合约12月本周期价继续走高,连续四周来期价震荡反弹上行,成为近期油脂商品中的明星品种。截止到9月26日(周五),期价已经反弹到60天线2200附近(这是我们早以前就预定的第二目标位)。当期价反弹到此也就到了最为关键时候,因为对空头主力来说,中线角度若还要延续前期的下降趋势,那它一定不能被期价上穿最后一道防线(60天线),一旦该位置被向上突破,则原先日图表上的空头排列的均线系统就会发生改变,就存在均线上穿向多头排列演变的可能。一旦这种情况发生,则原先的短线“反弹”行情就演变成反转行情了,所以当前马盘棕榈油商品市场的走势就到了技术层面关键期。9月26日(周五),期价从2200整数关处略有回落,终盘以带上影线十字星收盘于2177令吉,在关键阻挡位置,盘中有部分多头获利了结平仓。下周密切关注60天线是阻挡还是上破就成为我们关注的焦点,也是后期马盘毛棕榈油走势的方向性指引关键。

大陆内盘油脂类商品,本周走势介于美盘豆油和马盘棕榈油二者之间,周初想跟随美盘下挫,随后下蹲失败又跟随马盘上行,但在上行中又受美盘下跌影响严重,形成了大陆内盘所特有的跳跃式无序波动,令短线操作难度增大,整体观察内盘豆油和棕榈油1501合约,其仍然运行于前期成交密集区内的横盘平台箱体中,期价受资金面混乱情形下的脉冲式宽幅波动,箱体内的平台短线无趋势波动观望为宜。

综述:油脂类商品:豆油和棕榈油本周走势略有分化,马盘棕榈油表现较强,期价反弹到关键技术位。美盘豆油表现较弱,仍呈现抵抗性下挫寻底。大陆内盘箱体无序宽幅跳跃波动。三者之间的本周走势不尽相同。下周展望:马盘密切关注60天线位置表现,若不能有效突破则前期反弹多单可适量减仓。大陆内盘油脂商品本周曾挖过陷阱,期价更多无序波动,可操作性不强,考虑到下周国庆长假期临近,(期货公司保证金要增加,后期市场的不确定因素也同时增加)内盘油脂商品停止操作,场外观望。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock