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Global Markets Analysis – 28 September 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


28.09.2016 周三 中国与美国方面大豆收割工作展开;油脂类商品盘面承压略有走软

临近九月末了,每年临近9月底-10月初这个时候,美国方面的大豆收获季节已经逐步开始,据最新数据美国当前大豆收割已经完成10%左右。从美盘油脂商品近期走势上观察,大丰收美豆产量增加的担忧情绪依然蔓延在美盘市场,特别是近几日,美大豆与美豆油双双期价走软,对当前全球油脂商品的反弹上行带来一定的心理压力,我们不能忽视该盘口语言对后市走势的负面影响。

国内方面,近期已经出现新季大豆零星上市,今年国产大豆开秤价格低于去年同期水平-黑龙江地区食用大豆收购价格为3600-3800元/吨,低于去年同期的4100-4200价格。供货充足收获季节压力有所显现,其它国内大豆收获区安徽新豆收购报价为4100-4200元/吨, 湖北地区新豆报价4200-4300元/吨,河南地区报价4000-4100元/吨,整体来说收获季节的压力还是非常大。从内盘油脂商品如豆油 与棕榈油1701主力合约来看,期价也追随美盘走势走低,在临近长假期,我们更是要保持警惕。

马来西亚方面,每年9月 10月是棕榈油季节性产量高峰期,而需求方面-中国与印度是全球最大的棕榈油消费大国,随着后期天气转冷,公共假期如国庆与斋月 等节日消费情绪,后期恐将有所减弱,这对棕榈油后期出口也存在一定的价格制约。 马盘棕榈油见2014年3月以来的新高附近时候,期价也出现隐隐下坠盘感,当前期价下挫到9月19日-9月20日的那个跳空缺口附近,该缺口是否技术支撑的住? 也需要我们随后的技术观察。

小结:中国美国大豆收获季节临近,市场供应压力有所增强,令前期期货市场油脂商品的反弹上行走势受阻,从近2日的盘面观察,后市的不确定性因素较多,特别是国内还有一个近10天的长假,为了规避系统性风险,我们依旧按照昨日提出的操作思路模式-在内盘与马盘油脂商品上多单适量减仓操作,特别是短线交易者更高保持谨慎心态,谨防市场出现大的变盘动作,风险始终放在第一位,而盈利仅仅是第二位置,今天再重申一遍昨天操作思路。

[SUMMARY]
• As harvest of US and China soybean approaches, supply-side pressure weighs on the upward reversal of edible oil futures prices.
• Uncertainties in the last two days, in addition to a period of ten public holidays, affirm our outlook of the previous day.

[ACTION]
• Traders may reduce a reasonable amount of long positions in China and Malaysia edible oil.
• Short-term traders should remain more cautious in anticipation of any large movements in the market.
• Traders should prioritize risk over profit.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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