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Global Markets Analysis – 29 August 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


8.29 周五 马弱 内强 美横盘

今天周五,全球油脂类商品整体交投不振,多空操作趋于谨慎,油脂商品期价以小平台横盘震荡为主,更多呈小十字星轻微波动,市场观望情绪较浓。

基本面方面,有消息传闻近几日国内下游买家在豆油上出现补库迹象,当前豆油期价还是存在吸引人的地方。船运机构公布装运报告显示,8月份的前25天内,马来西亚对我国出口装运的棕榈油数量为今年来最低水平,(开具信用证难度增大)国内港口棕榈油库存连续5周持续下降,这也是 内盘与马盘棕榈油近期盘面表现上略有分化的原因所在。(马盘出口减少期价下跌,内盘库存降低期价略微坚挺),后期内盘棕榈油强于马盘棕榈油走势值得预期。

美盘豆油继续延续小幅度低位震荡走势,未能给全球油脂商品明确的短线方向指引。美盘原油走势稍强,略微出现右侧走高迹象。

小结:全球油脂商品在中短线下降趋势影响下,延续下行走势,在均线系统空头排列阻挡下继续下探(马盘棕榈)或横盘震荡(美盘豆油和内盘棕榈)或小幅反弹(内盘豆油)。当前油脂商品基本面利空利多消息匮乏,更多表现为消化前期利空消息。在无更多消息刺激下,多空主力操作趋于平静。从当前市场盘面表现分析可以看出,前期基本面各大利空消息对空头有利,短线技术方面对多头有利,二者短暂达到一个平衡,因此市场期价波动走势逐步收窄,观望气息较浓。短线上我们继续保持技术层面反弹要求观点不变,个人观点认为已进多单激进操作者继续持仓不动等待反弹动作的发生。稳健操作者不见长阳不动手,敏感时期场外观望 ,看到底谁胜谁负。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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