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Global Markets Analysis – 29 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


29.08.2017周二油脂类商品期价略有回落

美盘豆油12月合约,期价在前高附近震荡徘徊到第五天,若是总这样迟迟不过,势必会引发多头主力的担忧情绪,而空头主力也会借机逢高打压,对于这点我们继续保持高度警惕。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,由于得不到美盘豆油短线走势上的指引,内盘油脂商品期价也出现了走低现象。今天周二早盘,期价低开低走小阴K线表现,当前期价回落到10日均线附近。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,今天周二早盘期价跳空小幅低开,期价略有走软。从盘面观察主力操作变化—–减仓下行,为部分多头平仓出逃,鉴于此盘面特征,我们内心的那份警惕心态仍不可放松。

小结:美豆油迟迟不能挑战前高,这引起内盘马盘部分多头主力的恐慌情绪,今天盘面上出现了部分多单减仓出逃动作,我们继续高度关注市场短线变化。单从美豆油来说——-尚未完全丢失上攻动能,并且也未明显的“掉头”向下。我们继续以谨慎的短多观点对待,除非美豆油明日周三的晚间再度期价下挫,到那时只有追随性多单减持,目前让我们再多观察2日(今日晚间美豆油可能会阴K线走低,关键看明日周三晚间美豆油的市场表现),让我们给美豆油多一天的方向指引。具体操作上:前期多单继续持有(除非遇急跌被迫盘中平仓),我们抱一线希望—-尽量逢高点时候平仓。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil struggles to move higher, causing long interest on China and Malaysia edible oils to lose confidence.
• The market today saw long positions being liquidated as traders head for the exit.
• There is no clear sign as to where US soybean is headed.
• As such, we hold a short-term long outlook. However, should US soybean oil fall further, long positions may need to be reduced.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long positions but prepare to close-out if prices drop drastically.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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