Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 29 December 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


29.12.2015 周二 假期过后开盘;市场操作人士心态不稳;期价出现波动

美盘接连12月25、26、27三天停盘后,12月28日周一开盘,开盘首日意外的以中阴K线下跌收盘,这令全球油脂类商品的短线反弹上行节奏发生了小小变化。美盘大豆与豆油的短线下挫是由于南美国家(特别是巴西)由于降雨缓解了对前期干旱的担忧,令美盘大豆出现期价下滑,但随着降雨的增大,南美部分国家又开始出现洪涝灾害(阿根廷、巴拉圭、乌拉圭)厄尔尼诺现象正严重影响到该地区国家,后市我们继续关注天气情况的变化对油脂类商品的影响。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,受美盘昨天晚间的阴K线下跌影响,今天周二早盘跳空低开,上午盘中一度期价疲软走低,午后盘中在多头主动增仓进场护盘下,期价才有所走高,盘面的疲软得到一定的改善。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,在马来西亚12月份棕榈油出口数据不理想,美原油下跌、美豆油与大陆油脂走软等因素影响下,昨天周一盘中在停盘(24、25、26、27)4天后,出现空头增仓主动逢高打压(2500整数关口存在空头技术盘阻挡),昨日马棕榈以高开低走的中阴K线收盘。今天周二早盘又出现低开,后在空头减仓下追随大陆内盘午后走高,部分失地才一定程度被收复。

小结:全球油脂商品在圣诞节假期前后连续停盘,28号周一开盘后,盘面人气略有不稳,期价出现大的波动,甚至打乱了油脂商品短线反弹上行的节奏,今天周二盘中期价的反复若能收复失地,我们则继续保持短多观点。大陆内盘马上有要临近元旦新年假期,不排除这几日连续的因假期停盘对商品上场上投资人气有所打击。个人观点认为中长线多单继续持有。短线交易者多单保持谨慎态度持有。建议密切关注后市盘面新的变化。根据以往多年经验-在大陆内盘劳动节、国庆节、元旦长假时候均较容易出现大的行情发生。关注今年元旦假期盘面的变化。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock