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Global Markets Analysis – 29 January 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


29.01.2016周五 马盘毛棕榈油走势出现变盘;内盘与马盘短线交易者短线多单规避风险

美原油连本周短线角度呈超跌后的止跌企稳反弹走势,期价挑战上方均线的层层压制走势延续中。美盘豆油3月合约,也呈现出重心上移的震荡盘升短线走势。美盘黄豆连昨日周四晚间中阴K线下跌,期价出现了疲软态势,有消息称:中国买家违约取消了美国大豆购买协议,美盘黄豆连受利空消息影响期价下挫,美黄豆连短线走势呈疲软下挫走势。美豆昨晚的下跌恐对美盘豆油带来不利影响,这点要引起我们散户朋友的注意。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,近期我们刚刚提到过,本波反弹上行走势的上涨幅度始终没有打开,成交量未完全支持期价的上涨空间,逼迫我们暂时定义为弱势下的反弹走势,这在一定程度上就表明我们内心深处对上涨空间不期望太高。昨日盘中内盘豆油与棕榈油呈小十字星波动,成交萎靡,今天周五盘中期价出现了下挫,盘中疲软态势较为明显。

马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,昨日周四盘中冲高回落,今天周五盘中出现异动情况,期价早盘跳空低开低走,持仓量大幅减少,价跌持仓减少-为多头出逃盘口语言。马来西亚的令吉特的坚挺走强对马棕榈油带来利空影响。马盘毛棕榈油基准4月的短线反弹走势今天遭到破坏,期价出现再次挑战下方60天均线的苗头。马棕榈油短线走势出现变盘走势。

小结:中国临近传统节日春节(2月8日),对中国油脂商品需求减弱的担忧又严重影响到全球油脂上的短线走势。(传统意义上说-中国商家会在春节前1-2月间采购豆油与棕榈油提前备货,随着春节的临近,中国大陆居民消费者均已购买完毕年货,后期油脂商品的消费量将会下降也就是说该买的都已经买了)。中国买家在美国大豆购买协议的取消也是油脂商品带来利空影响的另一个因素。从今天油脂商品的短线走势上-特别是马盘棕榈油的跳空下跌走势观察,油脂类商品的短线走势又出现变盘信号。这点要引起我们散户朋友的注意,特别是短线交易者。个人观点认为具体操作上:中长线稳健型交易者原多单适量减持,激进型短线交易者多大平仓了结,马盘棕榈油交易者多单出局后,部分短线交易者可适量反手空单进场。马盘毛棕榈油出现转空走势。在当前大局势不明朗前提下,我们追随盘面期价运行轨迹暂时短线交易为主。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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