Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 29 July 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


29.07.2016周五 美盘豆油下挫无力;内盘与马盘油脂商品上所持有的防御性空单减持

美盘豆油12月合约,在上周五与本周一2根长阴K线暴跌之后,本周的随后几天里,期价始终维持30.00一线,呈现横盘震荡整理走势,盘中并未出现有力度的下探,在回落空间上也基本符合我们的心理预期-下跌空间不大。盘面信号语言显示, 若空头主力始终不能令期价继续走低,这势必会提振多头主力的信心,多头反攻在即。

大陆内盘油脂商品上豆油与棕榈油1609合约,近几日的短线回落整理走势呈现出更多的抵抗性盘口语言,特别是内盘棕榈油1609合约,由于中国大陆方面当前各大港口的棕榈油现货库存偏低,不足30万吨的低库存,令多头主力不惧后市期价下跌,今天周五早盘的低开高走现象-表明多头主力后市短线上仍有上攻的意愿,空头下挫力量衰竭之时,便是多头主力发动上攻的开始,我们前面防御性空单建议减持。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10,从季节时间上来说-每年的8月份到10月份是马来西亚棕榈油产量高峰期,因此上马盘棕榈油10月期价下行的压力还是比较大,但从本周马盘棕榈油的短线走势上观察-始终隐隐能感觉到有一只看不见的大手托着期价,对此现象我们也要保持警惕心态,也建议马盘棕榈油上的锁仓空单可逢低离场。

小结:全球油脂类商品前期短线反弹上行走势突然半途夭折失败后,市场空头主力却始终未能令期价走低,多头主力盘中护盘信心坚定-这样一来,那后市油脂商品下探整理结束之后,势必会迎来市场更多的做多热情,虽然截止到现在,美盘豆油12月合约尚未真正出现回落整理结束的技术信号出现,但从内盘与马盘的盘口走势语言上观察,后市期价上行要求还是非常强烈。因此观点认为操作上:我们建议本周末与下周初原来持有的锁仓空单可考虑逢低平仓离场,从8月份开始,准备新进场的多单交易者可在内盘1701合约与马盘基准10月上换主力合约-做好心理准备,等美盘豆油一旦出现反攻迹象,第一时间进场短多操作。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock