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Global Markets Analysis – 29 June 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong

6.29 周日 上周行情回顾 (23.06.2014 – 27.06.2014)

6月23日 至6月27日当周,全球油脂类商品先扬后抑,当期价反弹到关键技术位后,短线的技术走势出现微妙变化,在6月25日的时候我们仍继续保持反弹观点不变,但从6月26日和6月27日连续两天的走势观察,盘面出现短线触顶下挫嫌疑。其中美盘豆油12月合约,在6月24日、6月25日和6月26日三天站于日图表上60天线后,没能继续发力上扬,6月27日周五再次从60天线上滑落下来,这个信号显示前期的反弹行情出现短线变盘的嫌疑,记得我们在6月25日的时候说过,41.30位置就是前期5月初时候的成交密集区压力部位,只有向上突破该密集压力位,后市才存在继续反弹的动力,5月初的时候期价从该位置跌落下来,6月末这几天反弹到该位置又出现了压力,后市行情如何演变成为我们关注的焦点。

马来西亚毛棕榈油基准9月,6月25日 和6月26日连续2天位于原下降趋势线上方,当时我们仍以反弹观点看待,但由于这2天均是阴K线收盘,我个人对该反弹行情的动能就曾产生了怀疑,6月27日再次从下降趋势线上方跌落到下方,令反弹走势出现危险信号。前期每次当期价触及到下降趋势线位置,总是出现回落行情(4月28日和5月15日),所以当这次触及到该位置,我们也要保持谨慎态度。


综述:6月23日至6月27日当周,油脂商品先扬后抑,在触及到各自技术压力位后,出现反弹触顶回落走势嫌疑,前期的反弹是否结束成为下周的关注焦点,若下周期价仍继续下滑,则存在短线的反弹失败可能。操作上,我们已经连续6月26日和 6月27日这两天提醒减持原接盘多单,正是为了规避该种走势造成的损失。 特别是短线操作者更应该保持敏感。多单减持后,可先出场观望,若行情下周一继续下滑,可适量反手短空操作。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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