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Global Markets Analysis – 29 June 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


29.06.2016 周三 油脂类商品三地短线走势上出现分化

美盘豆油12月合约,短线期价依旧不温不火呈现出横盘震荡状态,短线下挫调整之后的结尾阶段进行中,昨日周二晚间期价曾大幅波动,一度中阳上涨而后又涨幅跌回,终盘以带上影线的小阴K线收盘,期价也并未创出新低,依然在5月25日的前低附近震荡徘徊,对于美盘豆油当前走势我们继续以短线下挫整理之后的寻支撑观点对待,继续关注美盘豆油的后续走势。

大陆内盘油脂类商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,在本周一 周二连续2天中阳上涨之后,短线下挫整理之后率先出现盘中期价走强迹象,反弹走势跃跃欲试,但由于没有得到美盘豆油盘面走势上的支持,今天周三盘中期价高开低走略有走低, 对大陆内盘油脂商品今天的阴K线表现来说-只要今天的阴K线不跌破昨日的阳K线,我们继续保持反弹走强的反弹上行观点看待,逢低多单继续持有。

马来西亚方面-马来西亚船运公司调查报告显示:6月份前25天棕榈油出口量环比降低9.85%到10.22%百分点,棕榈油出口数据的疲软对马盘毛棕榈油基准9月有一定的拖累,此外马来西亚季节性产量增加以及令吉特汇率的坚挺均对马盘棕榈油造成利空,从而抵消了外围油脂商品上涨带来的影响。马棕榈油基准9月,昨日周二盘中期价尚呈现横盘短线下挫后的筑底状态,今天周三早盘却又跳空低开低走,期价再创出新低,这个异常动作也要引起我们的今天。不排除马盘棕榈做了一个杀多的空头陷阱,我们要谨慎对待。

小结:大陆内盘油脂商品反弹上行欲望强烈(上),马盘毛棕榈油下挫态势依旧(下),而美盘豆油不温不火依旧居中表现(不上不下)-三地油脂类商品在短线走势上出现了异常的分化现象,我们本周一与周二所进多单暂时继续持有 ,密切关注美盘豆油到底要支持那方?个人观点更倾向于—多日下跌之后存在技术反弹技术要求。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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