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Global Markets Analysis – 29 March 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


29.03.2016 周二 美原油与美豆油回落整理中;棕榈油出现脉冲式冲高波动震荡

国际原油市场在前期反弹上行之后,短线出现回落整理走势,期价回落确认下方均线的支撑,技术整理走势较为明显。美盘豆油5月合约,短线走势也在反弹之后的较高位置小幅回落整理,虽然短线的下挫幅度不是很大,但技术调整仍在延续中,我们继续保持该观点不变。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,短线抵抗性下挫整理,回落幅度较小,特别是内盘棕榈油盘中多头抵抗更为明显,但上冲动能依然显得衰竭,上方空间不会很大,冲高之后的回落整理还是要发生的,因此逢高减仓多单仍为明智之举。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,在厄尔尼诺心理影响下,由于对未来产量的担忧,以及受短期马来西亚棕榈油出口数量的乐观情绪带动下,短线多头拔高上冲意愿还意犹未尽感觉,但随着期价的持续走高之后,超卖的技术层面对回落整理的要求也会越来越强烈,这二者是就如同挤拉弹簧一样;是相辅相成的,在昨日红盘上冲之后,今天周二盘中又小阴K线,我们继续保持内心中的那份警惕。

小结:油脂商品市场豆油与棕榈油短线走势略微出现分化,但最终二者走势会趋于相同,对于这点我们并不怀疑。期价在短暂时间暂时的不同步也可以理解,在连续反弹上行之后,我们所关注的重点不是新高在什么具体位置,而是我们何时出局能 规避真正发生回落时候我们能全是而退,戒贪以及戒燥是我们当前主要操作心态。个人观点认为具体操作上:短线多单继续逢高减仓了结直至完全出局,中长线多单中波段性质操作者也逢高减仓,后市我们仍以冲高之后的回落整理技术要求看待。不在期价的反复波动中被市场所迷惑,态度要坚定。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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