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Global Markets Analysis – 29 March 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


29.03.2017 周三 油脂类商品短线回落整理走势延续中

美盘豆油5月合约,2根长阴下跌之后的回落整理走势延续中,前期的几次盘中短线反弹走强均以失败告终—–这说明短线的反弹走势受制于中线大周期的下挫整理态势,中线的下探寻底过程并未真正结束(虽然有过几次 快速反弹),但在中线角度的下挫作用拖累下,也只仅仅昙花一现。只有当周K线图表上真正低位拐点技术支撑形成雏形,或者日K线图表短线走势力度超强—-把周K线走势“拉”起来。可惜这二者预期都未完美出现。在南美大豆收割压力增大(巴西阿根廷大豆产量增加)以及美国本土大豆播种面积增加的双重情绪担忧下,美豆油5月超跌之后的蠢蠢欲动反弹动作均被空头打压下来。本周末(3.31日)美国农业部又将公布大豆种植面积,若数据利空,很有可能再度令美豆油期价受挫下跌。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,受累于美盘豆油下挫走势,由于国内目前还属于油脂消费淡季,国内豆油总库存为120万吨左右,棕榈油总库存为60万吨左右—–在内需不旺情绪下,内盘油脂短线走强始终不能持久,只好耐心等待周K线大周期的调整到位后的一波反弹走势。

马盘棕榈油基准6月,受累于国际原油短线走弱影响以及豆油期价走低影响,由于豆油棕榈油价格基差变小,棕榈油的替代作用优势不明显,棕榈油虽然有过强势反弹动作,但最终还是被豆油的疲软给拖累下来。在消息面整体利空情绪下,马棕榈仍将保持抵抗性回落整理态势。

小结:美国农业部(USDA)本周五即将公布最新的大豆播种面积,市场投资人的利空情绪蔓延,全球油脂类商品短线期价下挫,虽然本次回落空间我们不看很大——但在短线走势整体疲软氛围下,我们短线依旧保持短空观点对待。操作上:内盘豆油多空锁单继续持有锁定风险空间,棕榈油平多翻空后的空单继续持有—-但要注意寻找逢低平空的机会,更大周期上(周K线图表上)自去年12月初回落整理之后的 一波反弹修正走势仍未出现,我们内心深处还对此走势抱有良好预期(金融市场永远没有直线下跌的走势只会是波峰波谷运行方式)。

[SUMMARY]
• With USDA set to announce acreage estimates, bearish sentiment is building as global edible oils continue to fall.
• We hold a short-term short outlook.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain spread position on China soybean oil.
• Traders may continue holding short position that was switched from long and look out for opportunities to square-off at low prices.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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