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Global Markets Analysis – 29 May 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


29.05.2015 周五 内强外弱;棕榈强豆油弱

全球油脂类商品中,美盘豆油7月合约受近期美盘大豆下跌拖累,期价在稍低位置(60天线处支撑震荡),当前美盘大豆的下跌已经暂告一段落,短线出现止跌企稳苗头,若后市美盘大豆止跌回升,则美盘豆油下滑压力将骤减。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1509主力合约,当前短线走势已经形成反身震荡盘升格局,在重心不断上移过程中,多头买进增仓情绪踊跃。特别是棕榈油1509合约,近几日的红盘上涨过程中,成交踊跃增仓积极,期价的上涨稍强于豆油。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月合约,本周5个交易期价从低位震荡爬升,短线的反弹走势盘中表现较为明显,期价临近5月12日高点附近,该位置一旦被向上突破,后市仍可看高一线。短线继续短多观点看待。

美元指数短线走强,当前处于上方的60天线的技术阻挡位,若后市该位置不能上破,则有可能再次出现下跌,建议密切关注该位置随后几天的技术压力。

纽约原油期价牛皮震荡,短线回落到下方多头排列的40天均线处暂有支撑,若后市美元走软,则国际原油仍存上涨机会。

中国股票市场前期发力上涨,从之前提示的大底2000点附近,(上证指数)短短几个月就上涨到将近5000点,由于上涨速度过快过猛,技术上已经出现回落整理要求。昨日周四盘中,冲高回落走势明显,已经形成“乌云盖顶”,短线出现技术走坏苗头,证券市场股票持有者建议今日全部平仓了结出局。密切关注短线的走势是否形成中线波段性的大的回落整理走势。

小结:油脂类商品短线走势依旧为内强外弱,棕榈油短线的反弹也强于豆油,这是个很微妙的现象。个人继续以短多观点看待后市走势不变。中长线依旧以长期筑大底观点不变。个人观点认为中长线多单继续持有,短线多单密切关注 5月6日(内盘)5月12日(马盘)的高点是否能被向上突破,该位置若被突破,短线多单可适量加仓多单。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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