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Global Markets Analysis – 29 October 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


29.10.2014 周三 前期短线多单继续持有

美盘大豆与豆油期价均站上日图表60天线之上,表明短线上的反弹走势在延续中。由于此前均线系统为空头排列,在最后一道防线被击破后,均线就会首先在日K线图表(短周期角度)上发生微妙的逆转变化,我们密切关注期价在60天线位置的后市表现。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,昨日中阳上涨,今天早盘继续高开,前期报告中我们曾提到9月30日的高点2236位置有被挑战的可能,今天周三期价正好见到2236,此位置很关键,若在该位置受阻则会出现再次的回落,若收盘上破阻力,则新一轮反弹延续得以展开。对马盘来说密切关注在该技术阻挡位的后市表现成为短线关键。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1501合约,受外围油脂商品走高带动,今天早盘跳空高开出现补涨,其中棕榈油补涨幅度略大于豆油,增仓上行的盘面表明有短线多头主力进场抢盘。

小结:油脂商品期价出现反弹欲望,我们继续保持短线层面的反弹观点。个人认为前几日进场试盘短线激进操作者多单可继续持有。对于马盘毛棕榈油1月的前高2236,若该位置被向上有效突破后,趋势性操作者可适量多单追进。

补充:马来西亚政府出手援助,有消息称从今年11月份开始,马来西亚将把棕榈油在生物柴油里的掺混率从当前的5%提高到7%旨在降低棕榈油库存,这将有助于提振棕榈油期价。至于提高的这2个百分点在棕榈油生物柴油的具体量化是多大目前尚不清楚。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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