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Global Markets Analysis – 29 October 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


29.10.2015 周四 美联储公布议息会议 ;鹰派声明“石破天惊”

昨日10月28日晚间(北京时间10月29日周四凌晨2点)美联储公布公布10月份利率决议,美联储维持利率不变,但整体会议鹰派气氛相当浓厚,甚至暗示在12月份将加息提高利率。本次会议声明中,美联储撤销了“全球经济和金融形势可能抑制美国经济”的表述,转为称 美联储将关注国际形势。这与9月份议息会议的言论明显不同,金融市场瞬间对加息预期急剧升温。美元指数闻讯从96.60大幅飙升到97.60.而非美货币如欧元与英镑则应声而落出现大跌。黄金价格也有不同程度下跌。

昨晚国际原油市场也动荡不安,美国原油库存降低支撑美原油上涨,其中纽约原油长阳飙涨5.60%至46.18美元,创2个月以来最大单日涨幅。当前市场甚至有言论称,若国际原油继续维持在当前低价格,沙特将5年后破产-因沙特作为最大产油国几乎没有给油价连续5年维持在每桶50美元以下这种情况的财政缓冲。昨日美原油连的上涨,令前期疲软回落下行态势瞬间得到扭转,后市存在上行机会。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,当前短线走势继续维持震荡下挫态势,随着期价重心的下移,下方的回落空间正逐步被缩窄,但在未完全止跌回升前,我们继续保持担心下探短空观点。

美盘豆油12月,当前短线走势模糊,继续围绕在60天均线处上下震荡,盘中上行或许下探均不是很干脆果断,在10月份最后这个交易周仍不能给出油脂商品短线方向指引,建议耐心等待11月上旬的市场表现。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,在周二与周三盘中我们报告中有所提及存在多头主力护盘迹象,期价呈低开高走红盘报收,今天周四盘中,又高开低走小阴K线表现,整体期价仍维持在2330令吉附近,短线呈抵抗性回落整理状态。技术上观察,在前高2014年11月3日、2015年1月12日、2015年6月3日三个阶段性高点之下运行,2350-2380区间上沿存在一定的技术压力,(若从棕榈油12月日图表观察,则存在运行第四浪复杂结构的可能(1浪上涨;2浪简单回落;3浪继续上涨;当前是4浪复杂回落整理;之后仍有5浪延伸上涨浪的可能)。

小结:当前全球油脂类商品回落整理行情延续中,虽然各个品种走势略有不同,但短线仍以短空看待。继续等待回落整理结束后的平空翻多的短线机会。个人观点认为中线多单与短线空单,持有者继续持有,操作思路为:以短线空单规避中线多单在回落时候所带来的不必要风险。单边持有短线空单操作者,操作思路为:时刻注意逢低平仓了结出局的机会,既然是短线仓单就不必乱战。空仓场外观望操作者也没必要心急,耐心等待止跌企稳和回落整理结束后的多单进场时刻。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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