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Global Markets Analysis – 29 September 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


29.09.2016 周四 再次强调重申-节前减仓操作;一切等节后再战

美盘豆油12月合约,连续三天来期价下挫,已经吞没掉前2根长阳K线大部分涨幅,短线走势较为疲软。从盘面观察-季节性收获压力对投资人的心理层面的影响还是非常严重,未来单产的不确定性与油脂刚性需求之间的情绪波动相互转换,造成盘面上的短线波动加剧,依旧形不成稳定而连贯性的单边走势。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油 1701主力合约,昨天与前天,2天的阴K线期价下滑,令前期反弹上行走势受阻,今天周四盘中虽然期价低开高走小阳表现,但已经不能阻挡住期价下滑的节奏,后市期价仍会追随美盘走低。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,昨天9月28日周三盘中的一根长阴K线,令期价回补了原来的跳空缺口(9月19日与9月20日之间的缺口),我们昨天就提到这个缺口是一个非常重要的技术关口-期价在跳跃上去之后,连续6天在高位维持,就是等待美盘豆油突破前高后再继续发力,但由于美豆油的疲软,直接拖累了马棕榈的后续表现,昨日的长阴K线下挫,令短线盘面瞬间出现新的变盘信号。

小结:全球油脂类商品近两日期价出现走弱迹象,各地油脂商品均出现不同程度的下跌,虽然在日K线图表上均线系统表现为多头排列上攻态势,但短暂的期价下挫也是我们不愿意看到的,我们在前天时候就已经提前预警该情况的发生,再考虑到大陆内盘将有10天的长假期,为了规避无必要风险,我们已经建议多单尽量不持仓过节,特别是短线交易者,今天第三天,我们继续建议前期多单尽量平仓与减仓 操作。在这假期前后这个短暂时间段内-我们不再评判短线走势是上涨还是下跌,待节后回来我们再根据美盘的具体表现做出新的判断,一切以市场的走势为唯一答案。

[SUMMARY]
• Global edible oils had been unevenly showing signs of weakening in the last two days.
• Reiterating our stand of the last two days, we are of the opinion that traders, especially short-term ones, should reasonably close-out and/or avoid long positions, citing risks that may arise over the 10-public holiday period.
• Going into the third trading day of the week, we maintain our outlook of partially reducing or completely closing-out long positions.
• We shall refrain from predicting the market movement between now and the start of the holidays.
• We shall make a judgment based upon the analysis of US markets after the public holidays.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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