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Global Markets Analysis – 29 September 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

29.09.2017周五内盘长假期临近 今天最后一个交易日

美国大豆主产区的收割工作正在进行中,对庞大的新豆产量预期给予市场更多的心理压力。 美大豆 美豆油短线下挫整理态势延续中—–特别是美豆油12月合约,最近几天期价中阴K线急跌,盘中加速赶底迹象明显,一波急速杀跌之后恐将引来另一波报复性反弹上涨, 很可能会在10月初盘中体现。

大陆内盘金融市场临近“国庆节”“中秋节” 双节假期,将有10天左右停盘交易,因此上恐将跟美盘油脂商品出现节奏上差别——为规避不可控市场风险,在本周初我们就提前制定了严格的操作计划 (空单逢低平仓离场策略)。今天内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1801主力合约,盘中交投不旺,盘面以十字星K线表现,多空主力在连续减仓之后,今日周五交易趋于谨慎。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月(或11月),马棕榈追随美盘 内盘油脂商品跌落下来,当前期价靠近了下方60天均线位置,该位置一直以来是我们心中的第一目标调整位, 能在该位置附近空单平仓离场也就知足了,没必要非要抓一个更好的“鱼尾”距离。

小结: 全球油脂类商品下挫整理行情延续中,截止到今天尚未出现明显的止跌信号,不排除还要低位整理几天的可能——但考虑到内盘今天是假期长假前的最后一个交易日,我们在连续多日建议空单平仓兑现离场之后,未来几天无仓单的散户朋友可暂时场外观望一下——-等待节后回来能否寻找的一个多单进场埋伏的好机会,我们本波短线下挫回落整理行情截止到今天完全结束, 新的操作计划待节后回来我们再从新根据市场最新变化 再制定。

• The downtrend of global edible oils continues, as the downward corrections is in the progress.
• The market do not have obvious reversal signals until today.
• Today will be the last trading day for China market before they have a long break in upcoming week.

• Traders may observe the market and wait for another signals in the next few days.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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