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Global Markets Analysis – 3 August 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


03.08.2015周一 油脂类商品短线的下探仍进行中

上周初周二周三时分,美国纽约期货交易所原油商品短暂出现止跌企稳,但在上周五时候,美原油连又意外中阴K线下跌,表明美原油的短线下探仍在进行中。

受美国天气状况良好,美大豆上周五继续下跌,受此影响美盘豆油12月合约,同样上周五时分期价继续下挫,今天周一上午亚洲电子盘仍阴K线下探,当前期价已经临近30.00附近,仍在考验前低2015年1月29日的前低29.79的支撑效力。从短线角度来分析美盘豆油,在短线下探过程中期价是肯定会出现走低现象,但具体到下方的下跌空间我们仍以保守观点看待,不盲目看低很多。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601合约,在美盘豆油未明显寻找到下方的技术支撑位前,今天周一早盘期价呈现中阴下跌,盘中空头主力增仓继续打压,内盘油脂商品的短线下挫延续中。

上周五7月31日,马来西亚船运调查机构ITS发布数据显示,7月1日至7月31日马来西亚棕榈油出口量为154万吨,比6月份的165万吨减少6.4%。另一家船运调查机构SGS的出口数据为153.9万吨,比6月份出口减少9.2%。出口需求的疲软对马盘棕榈油形成利空,再收到周边外围油脂商品走弱影响下,今天周一早盘,马毛棕榈油基准10月低开低走,期价继续走软,短线的疲软行情延续中。

小结:全球油脂类商品继续下跌,今天周一盘面表明油脂商品的下探行情仍进行中,短线的寻支撑过程延续中,盘中空头主力势头强劲,下方的回落空间仍有待考验。个人建议继续以美盘豆油12月合约作为风向标,密切关注该品种在30.00一线的具体表现(正负误差1美元)。短线观点上仍以短空下探看待。观点认为长线操作者的多单在美盘未下破前低29.79前继续持有。建议短线操作今天周一早盘继续逢高短空操作,日内平仓,短线的下探行情仍进行中。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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