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Global Markets Analysis – 3 July 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


7.3周四 明天大陆内盘增加棕榈油夜盘交易

近几日中国大连商品交易所发布公告:决定从明天晚上开始增加焦炭与棕榈油的夜盘交易。之所以选择这俩个商品作为试点品种,主要考虑是这俩商品主力持仓流动性强,机构参与活跃,并且该俩商品与外盘联系密切,易受外盘价格波动而造成期价不连贯的跳空现象,为避免期价的不持续性同时也为增加中国商品在全球市场的定价话语权先期作为试点推出。具体操作的可行性情况尚待后期的实盘验证。

昨天全球油脂类商品继续保持下行态势。其中大陆内盘豆油和棕榈油1409合约,已经跳空下破6月12日前低,技术形态走坏迹象明显,后市存在新低概率大增。马盘棕榈油基准9月,呈现出抵抗性下挫迹象,期价运行在前低6月12日低点上方,该品种的后市关注焦点就设置在6月12日 的2361位置,若下破必出现新低,若支撑成功则属于下探寻双底。美盘豆油12月,在前期38.60一线低点位置上方短暂受到支撑,盘面显示正在接受该支撑有效性的考验,是否有效尚待后市观察。

小结:油脂类商品依然受美国大豆种植面积增加和库存增加的利空基本面影响,期价重心下移,短线的下跌仍未结束。从中长期大角度方面来说,油脂类商品震荡性质的筑大底过程进行中,在底部区域未明显确定前,发动一波大级别的单边上涨行情目前来看时间上还不成熟,后市农作物生长天气方面的炒作也许成为导火索,特别是“厄尔尼诺现象”是否发生,何时发生?是否生成中长期大底之后的导火索尚待时间上的验证。个人认为在短线方面的具体操作:依旧保持逢高短空,遇急跌空单先平,待盘中高点再空滚动模式操作。耐心观察等待大底部区域的夯实动作的持续情况。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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