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Global Markets Analysis – 30 April 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


30.04.2015 周四 5月1日国际劳动节;内盘休假三天

美盘豆油7月合约,短线强势回落整理进行中,这里所指的“强势”是说,在前期短线走高之后,短线的回落不会以是猛烈的下跌走势,而是会以时间的推移来消耗回落空间的幅度,属于震荡式盘落整理,是下挫积蓄做多能量的一种方式。

内盘豆油与棕榈油1509主力合约,这几天的走势已经提前暴露出对美盘的回落预期,内盘期价在日K线图表上均线系统上穿成功后,将存在一个回落确认过程,由于期价刚刚上行,并未太远离均线,因此回落时候也将是个抵抗性强势回落走势。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月的短线走势与美盘和大陆内盘油脂商品走势略有不同,由于4月份以来马来西亚棕榈油产量季节性增长、马币汇率走强、棕榈油出口下降以及豆油/棕榈油比价效应等等不利因素影响,前期马盘毛棕榈油的回落幅度较大,期价下行速度较猛烈,当马盘毛棕榈油7月合约率先回落到前低箱体下沿附近,市场要做个技术抉择-是要下破?还是支撑?当前对下沿的考验进行中。

小结:国际传统假期临近,大陆内盘5月1日-5月3日停盘,马来西亚金融市场也将休市。在假期临近之前,前期多单已经平仓出局者不再建议新的操作。建议持有多空锁单者(长线多单,短线空单者)可继续锁仓不动。短线反手空单激进操作者可于收盘前逢低平仓了结,以规避假期所带来的不必要风险。安心与平稳度过假期。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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