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Global Markets Analysis – 30 December 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


30.12.2014 周二 原油跌;豆油和棕榈油上涨

国际原油近期供大于求格局仍延续中,周一晚间纽约原油再创新低52.90美元,盘中下行态势明显,我们继续保持对美原油下探寻支撑观点不变,依旧关注下方50.00一线的技术支撑表现。

对于全球植物油市场,本周初率先出现反弹走势。美盘豆油3月合约在箱体下沿32.00一线多日横盘整理,虽然美原油市场一直下挫,但未能令美豆油期价再次下跌,多日的横盘抵抗令空头主力能量消耗殆尽,近2日盘中出现走强迹象,当前美豆油期价进入32.00-34.00箱体,后市关注是否能突破箱体上沿,从而形成中长线角度的大底区域。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,由于近期马来西亚洪涝灾害基本面影响,对后期棕榈收获以及加工的担忧,市场分析人士认为2015年1月的产量有可能严重下滑。该品种是全球油脂类商品上最早出现异动的品种,也是最早启动反弹上行的品种,当前马盘毛棕榈油期价站稳上方60天线后,更是跳空高开强力上行,短线走强迹象明显, 后市关注对前高2014年11月3日的表现。天气状况的炒作同样令橡胶市场受益,今天周二早盘上海橡胶和日本橡胶双上发力长阳上涨。

昨日周一,大陆内盘油脂商品同样出现走强迹象,受美盘与马盘油脂商品上行影响,昨日周一早盘,豆油、菜油、棕榈油1505合约三大油脂商品均出现增仓放量上涨,表面多头主力进场抢盘迹象明显,个人认为操作上我们追随主力多单进场。

小结:当前本波油脂商品反弹行情有可能是由马盘毛棕榈油走势带动,马棕榈的一马当先上行令其他油脂商品多头主力做多热情受到鼓舞,我们短线对油脂商品保持反弹上行观点。今天周二大陆早盘,以橡胶、玻璃、焦炭为代表的其他品种同样出现强力反弹上行,甚至个别品种出现涨停。个人建议油脂商品具体操作上多单第一时间跟进后,逢盘中低点可适当加仓尝试多单接盘抢底模式操作。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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