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Global Markets Analysis – 30 December 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


30.12.2016 周五 2016年全球期货市场最后一个交易日

新华社最新消息:当地时间12月30日,白宫正式就黑客干扰美国大选对俄罗斯发起制裁。当天,美国总统奥巴马签署了一项总统行政令,对俄罗斯机构和个人的制裁方案进行了详细说明。白宫对俄罗斯采取的此轮制裁涵盖几个方面,其中包括:对俄罗斯的五个机构-首席情报局GRU、联邦安全局FSB以及为首席情报局GRU的网络黑客行为提供支持的三家公司进行制裁;对6位俄罗斯官员进行制裁,包括首席情报局GRU的四位官员以及美国财政部指证的非法占有经费和个人信息的俄罗斯黑客;美国国务院还关闭了位于马里兰州和纽约州的两处俄罗斯外交活动场所,并下令让35位俄罗斯情报相关人员在72小时内离开美国。俄罗斯方回应称:“美方此举令人遗憾,我们誓将采取反制措施”。受美国与俄罗斯因新一轮制裁,对立情绪影响(利空情绪),美元指数盘中瞬间跳水一度达到1%还多,而非美货币不同程度上涨。美元多日高位横盘震荡之后的回落整理序幕拉开。

国际原油市场整体波动不大,在前期统一减产利多情绪影响下,期价仍呈震荡反弹上行走势。美盘豆油2月合约,期价短线仍在我们昨日报告图表中的第一个圆圈内波动,临近元旦假期前后,美盘交投不旺,市场观望情绪较强,我们继续以回落整理尾声阶段对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1705主力合约,在下方60天均线处短暂受到支撑后,期价略有走高。当前第四季度中国大陆方面临近元旦与春节,各个商家备货积极,特别是5L小包装油品供不应求,国内油脂消费去库存效果显著,我们对内盘油脂商品保持短多思维。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,当前季节是马来西亚棕榈油产量下降阶段,马盘受潜在利多情绪影响,多头主力护盘还是比较积极。当前期价仍维持在一个较高高度波动震荡,短多观点对待。

小结:临近元旦假期,期货市场整体交易清淡,市场观望情绪较浓。今天是2016年最后一个交易日,在盘面未出现大的变盘技术信号前,我们继续短多思维看待。 大陆内盘元旦假期三天(31日、1日、2日),3号正式开盘。考虑到假期期间不确定因素较多,我们继续保持谨慎的短多思维不变。观点认为具体操作上:前期多单继续以静制动与持有,后市短线密切关注美盘豆油的最新动向(美元回落而期货商品下行压力减轻)。

– Tony Tong

补充:新年将至,遥祝各位同仁新年快乐,全家吉祥与安康!

[SUMMARY]
• As the start of a new year approaches, futures markets are generally more subdued.
• On the last trading of 2016, while the market has yet to see significant signals, we maintain our short-term long position outlook.
• Taking into consideration non-trading days on the 31st, 1st, and 2nd and uncertainty in the market, we maintain our short-term long outlook with high caution.

[ACTION]
• Traders maintain long position, while paying close attention to the performance of US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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