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Global Markets Analysis – 30 July 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


7.30日周三 等待美盘豆油在关键技术位做出选择

近5 、6天来中国证券市场热火朝天,低估值蓝筹股受到追捧,上证指数短短几天时间飙涨100多点,在利多情绪影响下,市场做多人气开始沸腾。

股票市场的热闹场面却并未传导到期货市场上来,期货市场依旧是不紧不慢按照自己特有的节奏运行,各类大宗商品无特殊表现。

我们所关心的期货市场油脂类商品中,美盘豆油12月昨日周二,当期价反弹触及到原下轨线技术阻挡位置,受到空头打压,终盘以带上影线的阴K线收盘,第一次的上冲宣告失败,美盘市场回落酝酿人气等待第二次的上冲。

大陆内盘油脂类商品中,豆粕和菜粕表现略强,特别是豆粕1501合约,自7月23日以来已经连续多日反弹上行。豆油1501合约期价变化不大,盘中明显感觉到粕强油弱迹象。

棕榈油方面,内盘与马盘走势相同,表现为右侧横盘现象,期价变化不大,呈现出下有支撑;上有压力,短线趋势性可操作性均不强。

小结:美盘豆油在关键技术位未给市场做出明确指引,是反弹触及技术阻挡位(37.40-37.50)后再受压继续回落下来?还是上行突破阻挡展开反弹?在市场寻找出答案之前,马盘和内盘油脂类商品呈小幅度无序震荡等待走势,只有美盘做出相对应的明确信号, 马盘和内盘才会出现清晰的市场跟随动作。我个人的短线观点更倾向于突破原下降通道下轨线的阻挡展开一波反弹行情,后市如何变化密切关注美盘豆油的动向。操作上继续保持昨天观点,不再过多复述。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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