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Global Markets Analysis – 30 June 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


30.06.2015 周二 受中国股市下跌拖累;内盘大宗商品普遍急挫

在经过前期中国股市疯狂上涨之后,上证指数从我们很早以前就提到的大底2000点左右很短时间拉升到5178点,股票市场欢天喜地,中国人也从过去见面问候的“你吃了没有”,改为“你买股票没有”。在一片祥和疯狂背后很多新股民完全没有意识到风险在悄悄逼近,在全民炒股热情最高涨时候,在股市最疯狂时候,在股民失去理智时候。从6月15日中旬开始,股票行情瞬间被逆转,短短10来个交易日,中国股市重挫,其中上周五的下跌还录的7年来最大单日跌幅。中国证券市场的疯狂下挫,股市一片哭爹喊娘,幸运平仓出局的看着盘面暗自流汗,更多的高位持仓的全部被套看着大盘流泪,更有甚者跳楼自杀的人数大增。这种悲观情绪延续到商品期货市场,大宗商品普遍出现下跌,从贵金属金与银,到有色金属;到化工类商品橡胶与塑料PTA,到煤炭与钢铁无一幸免。其中值得一提的是金属铜,此前国内多家基金机构押注经济放缓而拖累铜(做空铜),而中国政府随后的宽松货币政策将提振股市(做多股票),因此形成了在两个市场购入相互对立的头寸。(也就是我们期货市场常说的跨品种套利行为)。近期的股票市场冲高回落行情,令大多机构资金吃紧,因此纷纷减持金属铜上的空单,却恰恰造成金属铜的下跌幅度最小,并且还略有小涨,因此出现了一种奇怪现象,股市下跌唯一受益品种铜出现走高。

对油脂类商品来说,在纽约原油50.00一线,在美盘豆油30.00一线抄底进多埋伏的长线多单从技术分析上来讲应该相对风险较小。当前美盘豆油12月合约期价运行在33.20附近,日K线图表上均线系统表现为多头排列,波段性震荡盘升行情仍在演绎中,在美盘豆油未下破60天均线支撑前,建议依旧短多看待美盘豆油。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,今天周二早盘出现急跌,盘面观察受股票市场传导作用明显,今天内盘期货市场各类大宗商品均出现不同程度下挫,整体期货市场人气较为悲观。单从油脂类商品来说,内盘豆油1601合约,今天期价首次出现下破60天均线,技术上出现走坏。而内盘棕榈油1601合约,期价恰好运行到下方的60天线位置,内盘油脂商品将再次考验60天均线的支撑效力。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,受美盘原油与美盘豆油走弱,以及大陆内盘油脂商品暴跌影响,今天周二早盘跳空低开低走,期价同样出现大幅下滑,全球油脂类商品的整体联动性表现明显。

小结:油脂类商品周二早盘期价波动剧烈,盘中出现了明显的下跌,单个品种出现技术走坏迹象(内盘豆油),考虑到日图表上多头排列的均线系统,期价存在再次考验下方支撑的要求,建议继续关注美盘豆油在60天均线位置的表现,今天夜间将有重要报告出炉,对盘面产生何种影响是我们关注的焦点。在整理油脂商品未明显出现技术走坏前,暂且依旧短多观点看待。个人观点认为中长线油脂商品低位接单继续持有。短线操作者的多单暂谨慎持有观望一下,其中内盘豆油1601合约多单可部分减仓,或反手日内短空操作。同时关注美盘今日晚间盘面的表现,以确定我们对后市走势的判断。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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