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Global Markets Analysis – 30 June 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


30.06.2016 周四 内盘强,马盘弱,美盘居中 三地油脂商品分化走势延续

美盘豆油12月合约, 依旧在5月25日前低位置附近波动震荡, 短线走势上仍比较模糊——既未支持大陆内盘的反弹上涨,也未支持马盘棕榈的惯性下挫, 但我们整体的逢低平空反手接多的短线操作思路不变,具体操作上以美盘在前低附近多单埋伏,在下破前低X点下方为多单止损位的操作模式(止损位以个人的承受力为基本原则),后市我们依然以回落整理结束后的短线反弹观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂类商品豆油 棕榈油1609合约,前期短暂下挫之后的短线反弹欲望仍比较强烈,虽然没有得到美盘豆油的大力支持,但内盘油脂商品拒绝下跌,期价继续走高意愿仍存,我们继续保持短多观点,本周初所进多单可继续持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,惯性下挫态势延续中,盘面表现较为疲软,在昨日中阴K线急挫之后,今天周四盘中以十字星表现,由于马盘棕榈回落整理时间最长,短线技术整理也较为充分——所以我们继续以下挫筑底观点对待为最佳思路,个人观点是操作上仍可逢低多单进场埋伏,相信短线角度下方的回落空间已经不会太大,触底之后的反弹上行仍值得期待。

小结:美盘,内盘和马盘三地油脂类商品短线走势上分歧依然较大,由于各国的基本面情况略有不同,而出现了短线走势上的分化现象,但我们要相信—–最终三地油脂商品势必在期价运行轨迹上会趋于一致,我们继续保持回落整理之后的酝酿反弹上行观点不变。 个人看法是:前期已进多单操作者多单继续持有,马盘毛棕榈油逢低多单进场埋伏仍可进行, 散户朋友的多单在设置好自己个人止损前提下谨慎持有,密切关注美盘在后市短线走势上的支持效力。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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