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Global Markets Analysis – 30 March 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


30.03.2015 周一 油脂市场等待美国农业部的报告出炉

在3月31日,也就是明天周二晚间,(马来西亚时间周三凌晨1点),美国农业部将发布2015年首次季度报告。万人瞩目成为市场焦点。本次报告将涉及 2015年度大豆面积播种意向,单产预估值,2015年第一季度大豆库存数据等等的重要数据。

上周五以及今天,市场交易商与分析人士已经提前对本次报告前瞻,普遍认为本次报告利空成分较大。这在上周五以及今天周一早盘的期货市场有所体现,大陆内盘豆油与棕榈油1509合约,期价出现中阴K线下挫,市场疲软再次显现。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,前期短线走势模糊,更多呈现横盘小区间震荡。考虑到美盘与内盘油脂商品的走软,今天周一早盘,马盘毛棕榈油恐开盘下跌。

小结:美盘豆油5月合约,期价维持在30.00一线,距离前低仅仅一步之遥。在重要报告出炉前,市场表现相对谨慎,是否真形成下破前低技术走势成为市场悬念。建议密切关注本次报告对当前油脂类商品的影响。个人观点认为中线稳健者将前低作为多单止损位,下破前低后,前期接盘多单止损出局。短线激进操作者,低位接盘多单适量减仓,以规避市场不确定因素所带来的风险,也可适量空单进场锁单。建议静待美国农业部报告对后市是如何指引。(当前油脂商品走势很微妙)待情况明朗后再调整具体操作。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 










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