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Global Markets Analysis – 30 March 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


30.03.2017 周四 油脂商品弱势格局下成交清淡 静待美国农业部明天报告出炉

美盘豆油5月合约,昨日周三晚间小阴K线下跌收盘,今日周四亚洲电子盘又阴K线表现,当前期价下挫走势明显,静待美国农业部明天晚间的最新数据报告出炉,当前市场分析人士整体略悲观情绪(大都认为总库存种植面积均会增加)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,今天周四盘面追随美盘豆油期价走低,虽然下跌幅度不是很大,但短线的下挫态势依旧。对于内盘期货市场来说,明天还有最后一个交易日(3.31日 周五),然后就是清明节传统假期,一直要休假到4月4日,5号才能正常交易,内盘散户朋友一定要在操作上防范风险 —或锁仓或一定数量减仓。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,今天周四盘面追随美盘内盘油脂商品走低。盘中成交不活跃,市场观望情绪较浓,在美农业部(USDA)具体数据出炉前,多空主力操作上较为谨慎。

小结:大陆消费淡季,南美新豆上市供应庞大,美国2017年度新豆种植面积悬念,马棕榈出口低迷—-种种基本面迹象呈现利空,造成油脂商品超跌之后期价仍继续下挫,盘中的短线技术反弹走势仅仅昙花一现,始终不能形成短线角度与中线角度的大拐点周期共振, 表明短线走势受累于中线下挫拖累(当前唯一利多消息是生物燃油政策但在特朗普这个糊涂老头执政下,是否完善实施尚存悬虑),我们暂且对当前油脂商品短线走势持短空观点对待。操作上:短线空单继续持有,内盘交易者还要预防清明节几天假期不能交易所带来的不可控系统风险——后市等待后期播种面积变化情况以及天气炒作时期的来临。

[SUMMARY]
• Bearish factors including low consumption season in China, high supply of soybean in South America, expanded acreage of beans planted in the US, and low exports of Malaysia palm oil, contribute to the continued decline of edible oil futures prices.
• Short-term trend is being dragged by medium-term trend.
• We hold a short-term short outlook.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain short position.
• China edible oil traders should take into account any systemic risk that may result from the upcoming Qing Ming holidays.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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