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Global Markets Analysis – 30 November 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


30.11.2014周日 国际原油重挫;油脂类商品下行

本周油脂类商品走势是较为惨烈的一周(特别是周末时分),由于国际原油受利空因素影响(经济利空 与政治利空)出现暴跌,直接延伸到全球油脂类商品上,恐慌情绪在油脂商品市场弥漫,甚至渗透到其它大宗商品上。

11月28日周五晚间,美盘豆油1月合约在感恩节假期后开盘,期价直接大幅度跳空低开,一个交易日就把前期走势全部抹杀,期价从箱体的上沿位置,直接给打压到箱体的下沿部位,如此看来箱体下沿是否能支撑住都成为悬疑?下周密切关注31.80—32.00位置市场的表现。上箱体未被突破,我们的目光自然就要转移到下箱体位置,下周初该位置若被下破则内盘与马盘相应品种上要考虑空单跟进。

大陆内盘豆油1505合约,当前期价已经非常靠近2008年12月末金融危机时候的低点位置,虽然理论上下方空间不应该很大,但当前市场仍延续着油脂商品中线角度的下降趋势方向进行短线上的下挫寻底过程中,市场疲软走势仍然较为明显,所以我们短线上仍以下蹲观点看待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,前期走势一直强于豆油品种,但国际原油的重挫令棕榈油也出现下行压力,11月28日周五,该品种从日图表60天线上跌落,前期的支撑已经转换为阻挡,周五时候我们已经建议在该品种上早先持有部分多单者,空单进场先进行锁仓,以观察美盘开盘后的表现,到今天周日,美盘走势已经很清晰,期价已经滑落到箱体下沿,后期若下沿被技术下破,则仓单开锁以平多留空为宜。

综述:11月24至11月28日当周,美盘豆油1月前4个交易日短线走高至箱体上沿位置,但周五一天的跳空中阴单边下跌,已经宣告箱体上沿突破失败。下周初成交密集区的箱体下沿再次迎来考验,目前不排除行情出现下破的可能。这要引起我们短线上的注意,周五时候个人建议短线激进操作者可适量空单进场,主要原因就是考虑国际原油利空因素太严重,会直接影响到全球大宗商品上,特别是油脂类商品被拖累的可能性更大。下周初我们需要继续密切关注国际原油以及美盘豆油的动向,个人认为在短线操作上及时做出必要的调整,以规避系统性风险。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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