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Global Markets Analysis – 30 November 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


30.11.2016 周三 期货市场其它大宗商品出现暴跌;暂时规避负面情绪传导到油脂类商品上而带来的利润损失

美盘豆油1月合约,期价继续维持高位波动震荡,最短的5日均线已经上冲靠拢过来(因为5天来的横盘波动,已然使得5天平均价格达到一个恒定数字),但我们也要保持一份细微的谨慎-若期价再不能冲过37.63高点,我们要谨防高位承压,毕竟是5天了-不能一直挂在那里止步不前。

大陆内盘期货市-今天整体盘面上存在资金异动,大宗商品中特别是工业品种出现了大幅下跌迹象-包括有色金属、化工产品、黑金属等等,其中金属锌、橡胶、螺纹钢还出现了长阴“跌停”现象,这对内盘油脂类商品带来不小影响。内盘豆油 与棕榈油1701主力合约,今天周三早盘还曾一度发力上涨,特别是豆油1701还曾上涨到7030一线,距离11月24日高点7058只有28点之差。内盘股票市场,今天周三盘中,也出现了连续多日震荡上行超买之后的上涨乏力迹象,股票市场上证指数的中阴下跌,这对期货市场也带来不同程度的负面不利影响。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,期价努力维持在较高位置波动震荡,虽然截止到目前尚未出现明显的反弹上行结束信号-但考虑到内盘金融市场部分商品以及大环境的不利影响,恐怕会拖累马盘棕榈的短线表现,我们散户朋友也要注意这种心理层面的细微变化。

小结:美盘豆油震荡反弹上行节奏略显缓慢,不能在11月23日的长阳之后再继续发力上行,引发内盘油脂商品出现上涨的担忧情绪。又由于内盘股票市场以及期货市场其它大宗商品的长阴下跌,恐对内盘油脂商品带来一定的心理上变化,我们在关注油脂类商品走势的同时,还要时刻关注其它大宗商品的走势变化-操作情绪是会传染的,我们也要保持一份警惕心态。观点认为具体操作上:内盘与马盘油脂类商品前期多单可适量减仓一半,先把前期利润装进口袋一些,谨防期货市场的负面情绪传导到油脂类商品上(虽然油脂类商品的基本面没发生什么大的变化;美盘豆油也未发生多大变化),“害人之心不可有;防人之心不可无”我们还是建议今天在操作上做一个激进操作,暂时规避一下市场不利变化而带来的风险。

[SUMMARY]
• Upward reversal of US soybean oil showed signs of easing, creating anxiety in China markets.
• The decline in China stock and derivatives markets is affecting investor sentiment.
• We should closely observe the performance of edible oils, as well as that of other commodities.

[ACTION]
• Traders may reduce long positions in China and Malaysia edible by half, and pocket profits.
• We shall be cautious about the negative sentiment in the derivatives markets that may affect edible oils.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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