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Global Markets Analysis – 30 October 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


30.10.2015 周五 油脂商品10月份最后一个交易日 耐心等待11月上旬市场表现

今天10月30日周五,为10月份油脂类商品的最后一个交易日。美盘黄豆连当前短线的下探整理走势延续中,耐心等待美大豆收割结束阶段总产量的尘埃落定。美盘豆油12月,继续保持以时间换空间的横盘整理技术状态。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油 1601主力合约,期价重心下坠盘中表现明显,特别是棕榈油1601合约,今天周五盘中继续阴K线下跌,盘中丝毫未见到止跌企稳迹象,继续保持对内盘油脂商品短空观点不变。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,前几日报告中曾经说过,该品种低开高走,盘中多头主力护盘迹象非常明显,从近几日的盘中短线又出现独立的走强迹象。但由于美盘、内盘、马盘短暂的不同步,(怕受美盘与内盘拖累)令我们也不敢在未突破前几次的高点位置之下盲目看多,除非突破前期几次的高点(站稳2380以上),我们才转为短多看待。当前马盘毛棕榈油运行5浪结构中的第4浪,我们并不排除该品种后市存在第5浪上行的可能,只是对第4浪的调整结束信号保持谨慎态度。

小结:全球油脂类商品在美大豆收割末期整体走弱(马棕榈略强),我们当前短线继续按照下挫整理观点对待,(中长线我们继续保持震荡筑大底;反转前期观点看待)。观点认为操作上:中线多单与短线空单形成的对锁单暂时持有,短线操作者单向空单持有,耐心等待回落结束后空单离场机会。同时,场外观望者也耐心等待低价区域的多单逢低进场机会。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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