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Global Markets Analysis – 30 September 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


9月30日 周二 马盘棕榈油预计开盘上涨

华盛顿9月29日消息:美国农业部周一发布出口检验周报显示,截止2014年9月25日的一周,美国对中国大陆装运438,475吨大豆,比上一周的218,462吨提高一倍以上。美国农业部预测中国将在2014/2015年度(9月至10月)进口创记录的7400万吨大豆,高于上月预测的7300万吨。周日晚间美豆与美豆油红盘上涨,其中美豆油12月见日内低点31.75后探底回升,终盘以长阳上涨收盘于32.92。昨晚对9月10日期价31.52的前低仅一点距离,短暂对该支撑确认有效。

大陆内盘油脂商品今天为7天假期前最后一天交易,昨天周一油脂商品中豆油与棕榈油1501合约跳空低开走弱,今天早盘又跳空高开走强,整体仍属于箱体内无序状来回宽幅震荡,走势的持续性不连贯,可操作性价值不高。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,昨日低开高走,期价仍维持在2200令吉一线,独立的反弹行情仍延续中,由于到了关键技术位,期价后市若继续反弹上行,则日图表上就会出现短期均线上穿中长期均线的情况,是否能成功上穿就成为我们关注的重点。由于外围油脂市场(包括美原油) 昨日出现走强,今天预计马盘毛棕榈油仍存上冲意愿。

小结:美盘周一探底回升长阳上涨收盘,下方的短暂支撑验证有效。受此鼓舞内盘与马盘油脂商品周二存在走高意愿。个人观点认为内盘假期前最后一个交易日停止操作,马盘毛棕榈油反弹上行走势延续中,若期价站上60天线,前期反弹多单可继续持有,若发生冲高回落可适当盘中多单减仓,密切关注马盘毛棕榈油在60天线位置的表现。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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