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Global Markets Analysis – 31 August 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


8.31 周日 8月25日 – 8月29日当周油脂商品回顾

美盘豆油近8天来一直处于下跌后的横盘状态,本周前4天期价阴阳互相,出现短暂止跌,周五晚间,美国的一场对农作物有利的小雨令美黄豆下跌。美豆油在强大库存面前期价再次走低,创出近期新低32.00,市场仍处于一点点利空就足以令期价再度疲软阶段,如此看来,美盘油脂在无本质性利多改变前,期价走强难度确实很大。

美盘国际原油周五晚间中阳上涨,预期中的反弹技术走势非常明显,但这却对美盘豆油无任何拉动鼓舞作用。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,是近期油脂商品中表现最弱的品种,本周5个交易日期价受均线压制频频走低,8月份的整体跌幅已经创出近2年来的最大单月跌幅,技术上观察,当前马棕榈油11月正在延续5浪下跌的最后一浪,现在看来第5浪的延伸走势正成为可能,市场仍未出现明显止跌迹象,疲软下行态势延续中。

大陆内盘油脂商品,本周5个交易日中,豆油1501合约在8月25日周一低开后探底回升中阳报收,随后4天内期价逐步走强,市场率先表现出反弹苗头,可惜的是未能得到其他品种的有力支持。大陆内盘棕榈油1501合约,本周表现平淡,即未像内盘豆油出现走强,也不象马盘毛棕榈油那样跌跌不休,更多的表现为横盘整理状态。

综述:油脂类商品本周短线走势上出现分化,这点我们早已在盘面中有所觉察,其中马盘棕榈油最为弱势,美盘原油和内盘豆油略微走强,美盘豆油和内盘棕榈油较为中性。周五下午的马盘棕榈再次下探以及美盘豆油周五晚间的再次下跌,也就不足为奇了。值得一提的是,由于马盘和美盘的再次下跌,恐令大陆内盘豆油的反弹走势带来不利影响或存在半途夭折可能。个人观点是若下周一内盘豆油被拖累出现大幅下跌,前期在该品种上接盘多单可平仓出局。马盘棕榈油周一因马来西亚假期而休盘,未持仓者继续场外观望。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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