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Global Markets Analysis – 31 August 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


31.08.2016 周三 美盘豆油短线回落走势相当标准

美盘豆油12月合约,近期走势表现可圈可点-在前期从8月初开始反弹上行之后,连续的多根阳K线反弹上涨,当期价临近前高4月22日的35.81位置时候,上涨阻力出现,出现了4天的横盘整理,盘口信号出现了技术超买之后的上涨动能衰竭迹象苗头,当时我们就提醒短线交易者要保持谨慎,多单尽量逢高出局以预防期价回落带来的利润账面损失,后来,横盘4天后期价终于掉落下来,而美豆油期价一旦坠落下来之后,又是连续几天的阴K线回落整理表现-因此上说,美盘豆油12月在行情走势运行技术图表上非常清晰明了,相当完美,令人一目了然(即便当时有散户朋友看不明白,但事后再扭头回去看也是非常清晰)。当前美盘豆油短线的回落整理行情仍在延续中。

说完美盘豆油,再看看内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,在8月初的反弹上行过程中,期价的上涨幅度就没有美盘凌厉,总是以一种缩手缩脚的跟随状态,而当美盘发生回落时候,内盘油脂商品由于前期的反弹高度就没有美盘高,因此回落整理起来,也同样的小心翼翼,内盘油脂商品典型的一种“小家子气”。今天周三盘面上,当主力终于看清楚了美盘豆油正在发生回落整理短线走势,今天周三盘面期价才出现较为明显的低开低走状态。我们前期早就预料到后市要发生这种情况,因此上早早就建议短线敏感型交易者逢高先把多单平仓了结-就是为了规避当前的期价短线回落而带来的没必要承担的风险(账面缩水风险),而由于中线交易者的操作周期理念不同,因此中线交易者可多单持有(目标周期大而承受压力能量强)。

马来西亚方面,今天-31 August 2016(星期三)-国庆日Malaysia National Day,是马来西亚的国庆日,因公共假期而停盘一天,马盘棕榈油今日无交易。对马盘棕榈油基准11月来说,前期的反弹上行也比较凌厉迅猛,连续的长阳与跳空上涨,当反弹上行期价在临近2016年3月29日高点2669令吉特后,在8月17日盘中上涨过程中曾出现高点2668令吉特,与前高 1令吉特之差,就完全暴漏了市场“不可泄露的天机”,由此发生了一波回落整理行情,虽然当前期价在回落整理时候-期价仍上蹿下跳,期价较反复,但整体的回落整理态势未有本质改变,我们未被盘中的杂乱信号而干扰到,今天马盘停盘,躲过一小劫,当马盘开盘后期价将会补跌一下。

小结:对于中线交易者来说,由于操作周期层面要远一个档次,因此上对于当前短线的回落整理可以不予理会。但对于短线交易者来说,由于是沿着期价运行轨迹来操作,因此短暂的回落风险也是应该来规避的,因此我们在前期反弹上行尾声阶段就建议短线散户朋友先多单平仓了结出局,出局后可场外观望,也可日内逢高短空交易,并且日内进出,空单不过夜-本操作理念我们还需要维持一段时间,待真正的回落整理结束后,我们才制定新的操作计划,当前继续短空思维对待油脂商品。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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