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Global Markets Analysis – 31 December 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


31.12.2014 周三 中国大陆元旦长假临近

今天是2014年最后一个交易日,从明天1、2、3号法定假期4号周日,到2015年1月5日周一大陆内盘才开盘交易。几天长假为避免系统性风险,建议散户朋友轻仓操作以规避假期风险。

从目前的美盘豆油3月观察,期价短线在原箱体下沿32.00一线受到短线支撑, 在长期月K线图表上也存在长期上升趋势线31.00强力技术支撑,中短线的技术支撑令下方下挫空间收窄,靠近下方的少许接盘多单可执行。后市美盘存在向上挑战箱体上沿34.00的欲望。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1505主力合约,本周一的长阳上涨,瞬间给短线市场后期走势指明方向,一阳包多阴的走势较为凌厉而果断,这也是我们前期多次所要求:前期空单日内可逢高短空,但当天必须平仓而不持仓过夜,就是为避免此现象的发生。长阳之后我们短线观点转为短多看待,第一时间多单接盘跟进仓单假期时间内可继续持有,但中长线大底是否酝酿完成我们尚需时间上观察来得以最终确认。目前建议先以短多反弹看待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,期价经过几天的强力上扬,目前日K线图表上,短期均线(5、10、20日)正准备上穿60天均线,日K线图表上也存在“头肩底”技术形态,是否为反转形态尚待观察。后市密切关注2014年11月3日高点是否形成阻挡。

小结:油脂类商品反弹上行态势出现雏形,短线上我们以短多观点看待后市。但中长线角度的反转大底是否酝酿结束,目前我们还不能完全确认。观点认为短线追随主力的接盘多单可少量持有,在设置好个人心理止损位后,尝试性买进试盘,静观后市行情走势,当前先以短线观点看待本波反弹行情,长线角度暂不考虑。

新年临近,祝大家新年快乐。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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