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Global Markets Analysis – 31 December 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


31.12.2015周四 2015年最后一个交易日

今天是2015.12.31日,为本年度最后一个交易日,美盘大豆和豆油从今年6月底开始出现一波急速下跌,追随国际原油疲软走势明显。整体来说,油脂类商品震荡下挫(或平台横盘整理)为一个大的筑底过程,2015全年期价波动不大,几乎都在近8年来的地点区域内运行。美盘豆油3月合约当前短线走势为触低点后的小幅反弹走势,是否能演变成大的“趋势性”反转行情是我们一直所期待的。在美盘豆油3月合约短线反弹上行走势未衰竭前,我们继续保持短多观点不变。

大陆内盘油脂类商品豆油和棕榈油 1605主力合约,特别是豆油1605合约,从今年初开始几乎12个月来均为低位的横盘震荡走势,期价整体波动不大,在长期下跌疲软走势之后(从最高位的15000元/吨左右,跌到5200元/吨),期价几乎每吨下滑10000元,这种跌势是多年来所未见的。在跌倒2008年前低附近时候,我们从技术上不排除酝酿大的双重底的可能,因此从长线角度来说后市不再盲目看空很多。短线角度来说,当前大陆内盘油脂商品从低位区域的反弹上行走势延续中,是否真的酝酿成大的双重底反正形态,尚待我们后期技术上的观察。当前短线上暂时以短多观点对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,从长期角度观察,与美盘和大陆内盘油脂商品走势类似,但幅度上远没有美盘和内盘期价下滑到2008年全球金融危机时候的价格,我们很早以来就一直建议在马盘毛棕榈油2000令吉特左右价格均多单抄底埋伏进场,不在这个价格以下盲目看空很多,整体2015年来说,我们该操作思路基本正确。在长期横盘震荡下跌之后(月K线图表上观察,从2011年初开始的下跌到现在,已经走出了非常明显的5浪结构, 因此后市期价不能再盲目看空很多,期价从低位区域反身向上的概率要远比继续向下猛跌的概率要大很多,超卖之后的反弹上行更为现实。短线来说,马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,当前期价反弹上行中,盘中暂时受阻于2500整数关口,是否能向上突破,我们需要后市的耐心观察。从今天周四盘中高开低走的行情来说, 短线操作者中部分心态不稳操作者在元旦假期停盘前可适当逢高部分减仓,轻仓过节也为明智之举。

小结:全球油脂类商品从低位区域的短线反弹上行走势延续中,虽然部分品种(棕榈油)在前高附近出现技术阻挡,但整体来说油脂商品短线的反弹动能仍未出现明显的衰竭现象,我们短线仍以短多观点看待。个人看法是在操作上:中长线单边多单继续持仓不动。短线多单可持有,其中部分交易者也可在元旦假期时候适当减减仓位,以一个轻松心态过节,也是可取的。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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