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Global Markets Analysis – 31 July 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


31.07.2017周一 美豆油受利多消息提振长阳上涨上周五晚间突破前高

上周五晚间美国法院裁定,美国国家环境保护局((EPA)在美国销售的 汽油柴油中的生物燃料制定的掺混标准出现错误(应该是掺混标准少了),下令美国国家环境保护局从新计算 制定新标准—–由于该消息对美国豆油存在利多刺激,上周五晚间美盘豆油12月合约,在多人在前高附近震荡徘徊之后,终于长阳K线上涨,一举突破了前高34.44一线。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,在美豆油长阳突破前高之后,内盘油脂今天周一早盘期价小幅上涨,但涨幅远低于美盘豆油,并未紧紧追随美盘豆油的突破前高,仍属于横盘震荡波动状态。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,受国际原油美盘豆油短线强势支持,马盘棕榈油单独走出一波独立反弹上涨行情。继上周四中阳上涨之后,上周五短暂回落整理。今天周一早盘受外围周边上涨提振而跳空高开。我们上周五报告中提到过,马盘单独上涨后的短线分时图回落整理仍未完全结束,不排除高开低走现象。

小结:油脂类商品日K线图表上,均线系统呈现多头排列—–从技术理论层面来讲,该排列在一定程度上更容易支持期价的上行(回落到下方某均线后较容易受到技术买盘支撑)。我们原本的计划是带稍微回落整理之后,逢低多单埋伏,由于未抓住该低点位(下方60天位置),而在马盘强势突破前高时候,内盘美盘的不同步现象(未完全支持,慢了一个节拍),让我们又存在了一定的侥幸心理。同时上周一的一个突然下蹲假动作又迷惑了我们的眼——因此上在本波短线操作的节奏上出现了较大的误差(没踏对节凑)。上周五曾建议部分激进型交易者空单减仓出局,今天周一看来,油脂类商品仍会在高位维持一段时间,而手中持有部分空单未平仓掉的交易者恐将还需忍受几天的折磨。具体操作上:上周五已经平仓完毕的散户朋友,出局后场外观望,我们本周从新屡一下市场节奏——美盘内盘未发生明显回落整理,仅仅小幅下挫后就继续震荡反弹或横盘震荡。而马盘棕榈油市场表现为 1.先反弹上行(6.28日—7.11日) 2. 然后小幅度快速回落整理到下方60天均线(7.11—-7.19日)3.然后快速突破前高继续上涨反弹(7.19日—?未来某天)—–因此上马盘棕榈油短线上出现了3浪结构的短线反弹上涨, 对于3浪反弹结束后,后市仍会有一波 下挫整理(或许是第4浪下挫,也许是某浪层结构的第一浪的开始,目前尚不能确定到底是那一浪层),但可以肯定的是 3浪结构达到上涨某个高度之后,期价仍会出现下跌。这一段话是我们对后市运行轨迹的提前研判预测,希望通过我语言描述,大家内心有一个出步的痕迹概念。操作上,已经空单平仓出局的交易者暂时场外观望,被套空单未平仓干净的交易者以及场外无单观望交易者——让我们共同关注美盘豆油的反弹高度,也就是马盘棕榈油第3浪的反弹高点,然后在高位从新空单阻击(我们低位计划埋伏多单因塌错节奏未抓住,只好抓反弹之后的高点),当前油脂市场不存在“单边独立大行情”,只会发生小波段的来回短线行情,一次节奏踏错,后市仍有机会搏回来(拉锯式行情),让我们等待反弹之后的下挫整理行情出现(现有被套空单 与高位新空单,一平均期价,在下挫回落发生时候,仍会有机会不亏损出场)。

[SUMMARY]
• We plan to enter long positions after the downward correction is formed, but we could not catch the price.
• US edible oils and China edible oils are not synchronized before the Malaysian palm oil broke out from the previous high.
• We have suggested aggressive traders to reduce their short position on last Friday, for those who didn’t close-out all positions on last Friday might have suffered torment in coming few days.
• US edible oils have not shown an obvious retracement yet and it went into the sideways trading after a slight drop.
• Malaysian palm oil might have a downward correction after the three waves of uptrend has formed.

[ACTION]
• Traders who are do not holding any positions may wait and observe the market.
• Traders who are still holding short positions may pay close attention to the reversal of US edible oils and the third waves of the uptrend of Malaysian palm oil.
• Traders may initiate short positions in Malaysian palm oil when the top of the third waves uptrend has formed.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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