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Global Markets Analysis – 31 March 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


31.03.2016 周四 短线反弹上行运行到第21个交易日;保持敏感心态对待

今天是3月2日开始反弹上行的第21个交易日,也是本月的最后一个交易日,明天起月K线图要发生变化,此时间段为一个时间窗口(我们5-6天前就提前预测到这个时间窗),在这时间窗口盘面发生变化的概率很大。昨日晚间美盘豆油5月合约小阴K线下跌,今天周四亚洲电子盘又继续小阴表现,在这关键时间窗口,短线的的回落整理恐将拉开序幕,我们保持思维上的敏感心态。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,昨日内盘油脂商品冲高回落走势明显,今天盘中又阴K线小幅下跌,期价再度跌破5日均线,回落整理走势出现痕迹,我们短线操作思维以短空观点对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,继本周二冲高创出新高点2793后,昨日周三盘中期价中阴K线下跌,今天周四早盘又出现了低开现象,期价同样下破5日均线的支撑, 回落整理短线走势出现苗头,后市短线走势将回抽下方均线的支持力度,以修复许久以来的技术超买情况,期货市场没有直线运行的现象,只会是如同波浪一样,波峰与波谷的依次运行,2793令吉特高点有可能就是本波反弹上行以来的波峰位置, 后市短线将运行一个寻找新波谷的走势,我们保持冲高之后的回落观点不变。

小结:油脂类商品反弹上行运行了21个交易日,处于时间窗口敏感区域内,今天盘面显示出冲高后的回落迹象(3月23和3月24两天的动作是个假动作)我们以短空思维看待当前盘面。个人观点认为具体操作上:短线交易者多单全部平仓离场后,建议今天适当反手短线空单进场试盘操作。中长线交易中稳健操作者,特别是波段性交易者多单减仓(或平仓)后,暂时观望一下,待后市短线回落之后再稍低位置接回多单,适当滚动操作一下,也不能说不是明智之举,完全没必要死扛,后市短线角度我们以短空的回落整理行情看待。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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