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Global Markets Analysis – 31 March 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


31.03.2017 周五 内盘下周逢传统假期“清明节” 散户朋友持仓量适当减持

美盘豆油5月合约,受利空情绪影响(美国农业部今日晚间有重要报告出炉),昨日周四晚间盘中曾一度长阴K线下跌(下破3.14日的低点),后期价有所走高令跌幅收窄,终盘以带下影线的阴K线收盘—–这根下影线的出现,充分说明下方低点还存在低位护盘动作,也就是我们前面报告中所预期的——虽然短空观点看待,但下方回落空间不是看非常深,当前美盘豆油5月期价仍在32.00一线震荡徘徊。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,追随美盘豆油短线下挫走势延续中,昨日低开低走中阴K线收盘,今日早盘低开高走小阳K线表现,短线角度的下探回落整理行情延续中。但考虑到内盘未来几天因中国传统假期“清明节”来临,市场上不确定因素较多,因此在操作上也要谨慎些——- 内盘豆油上多空锁单可继续持有。 而棕榈油上单边空单持仓交易者可于今日适量减仓, 以防范市场不确定性风险。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,昨日周四盘中阴K线中阴下跌,短线技术观察——疲软的下挫整理走势延续中。今天马盘棕榈也将追随美盘内盘油脂商品走势期价走低,但由于短线技术超卖,不排除低开高走情况出现(昨日阴K线右下角的 小阳表现)。今日马来西亚船运调查机构也有重要报告出炉,也是我们关注的重点之一。

小结:美盘内盘油脂商品继续走低,拖累马盘棕榈油走势—-当前全球植物类油脂商品短线期价走势疲软,我们继续保持短空思维对待—–考虑到美国马来西亚今日均有重要报告出炉,特别是中国大陆又恰逢“清明节”假期停盘4天,当前短线不确定性因素较多,为防止不可控风险(特别是内盘交易者),建议部分散户朋友将持仓量适当减持。具体操作上;锁单交易者可继续双向持仓规避风险。而部分单边空单持有者可于今天逢低适量空单减仓操作,各个交易者可根据自己的总持仓量令持仓水平放低到一个可控风险范围内。

[SUMMARY]
• US and China edible oils continue to decline, dragging along with them Malaysia palm oil
• With global edible oil products showing sign of fatigue, we hold a short-term short outlook.
• Taking into consideration crucial reports coming out of US and Malaysia, as well as an upcoming holiday period in China, there is high uncertainty in the market.
• Retail traders are suggested to reduce positions appropriately, to mitigate systemic risk.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain spread positions to mitigate risks.
• Traders may reduce short positions according to their individual holdings.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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